To win big money in large field GPP tournaments on DraftKings, you need to find high upside targets that give you leverage over much of the field.

When you take down a GPP, you would prefer to not split the top prize with 2,000 other people. With a limited number of lineups, the goal is to find a healthy balance between high upside targets with low ownership projections.

Every slate is different, however, and sometimes it is just as important to recognize which fighters to fade as it is which fighters to roster. In this article, I will give my favorite leverage play and my favorite fighter to fade for this week’s slate.

Douglas Silva de Andrade $8,200         

Miles Johns stinks and I will die on this hill. In all seriousness, I think this fight is a really strong GPP target this week, because I feel confident that someone wins by knockout. A lot of people I respect are picking Johns to win a decision, which is certainly possible and would likely ruin this fight from a GPP perspective, but I do not see that happening at a very high clip, personally.

Miles Johns has been finished twice in his UFC career – once by knockout to Mario Bautista and once by submission to John Castenada. These two fighters handled Miles very easily and it is clear to me on tape that Miles really hates facing adversity in a fight. The rest of Miles’ UFC career is very unimpressive in that he has faced a very poor strength of schedule and he has fought close with guys like Vince Morales who could not cut it at the UFC level. Johns is an okay wrestler but is reluctant to use it much in his fights likely because of his poor cardio. Douglas defends takedowns at 70% and I do not think Miles will look to expend too much energy in trying to grapple in this matchup.

Douglas Silva de Andrade is 38 years old and at bantamweight, that’s a big deal. He has been around forever and has put on some epic performances inside the octagon. It is undeniable, however, that his durability is fading as evidence by his most recent fight against Cody Stamann where he was nearly knocked out in the third round by a guy who really struggles to hurt anybody with punches.

I expect Douglas to look to strike in this fight and fire off heavy combinations as he always does. I also expect Douglas to be the guy who is controlling the cage and putting Miles on the back foot for extended minutes. One of the big counterarguments to how I see this fight playing out is that it may be fought at a low tempo. Neither guy is known for putting up a lot of striking volume.

This is a valid concern, but I think in the smaller octagon and the way Douglas tends to fight, there will be some very dangerous pocket exchanges for both guys. Douglas also has shown cardio issues in the past and if this fight gets into the third round, it is possible that both guys are completely out-of-energy and just swinging from their hips.

Miles Johns is certainly capable of landing a big right hand here as Douglas crashes into the pocket and that could just be all she wrote. If that doesn’t happen, then I expect Miles to become increasingly uncomfortable and to eventually look for a way out.

From a game theory standpoint, I certainly think that Douglas will take significantly less ownership than Miles because he is priced $200 dollars more on DraftKings and he is currently lined as a +120 underdog in some spots. The fight itself is currently favored to go the distance, but I personally disagree with those odds and I think the winner of this fight has a good chance to win by knock out.

Official Prediction: Douglas Silva de Andrade KO2

Favorite GPP FADE of the Week
Timmy Cuamba $8,800

I do not think I will have much exposure to the fight between Cuamba and Lucas Almeida this week. I am not exactly sure how much ownership Cuamba is going to take in large-field GPPs, but it should be decent given he is currently a -200 favorite and his opponent is coming off of two losses which both ended inside the distance but be sure to check ownership projections.

I do agree that Cuamba should be lined as a moderate favorite over Lucas Almeida, but I do not agree that this fight should be lined at -210 to end inside the distance. Cuamba is a good striker with decent wrestling who throws strikes with a fair amount of volume, but he tends to be pretty risk averse on the feet. Timmy will punch in combination and apply pressure to his opponents, but never really sits down on his strikes or throws with much power. His fights tend to look more like sparring matchups at times, which is not what we want to see when trying to predict knockouts.

The concern here is that despite his perceived lack of power, Timmy might still be able to find a knockout over his opponent here simply because of how hittable Lucas Almeida is. Lucas does not move his head well and got obliterated by a right hand early on against his most recent opponent, Andre Fili. It is also possible that the power strikes coming back from Almeida could deter Cuamba from throwing as much volume as he typically does, which would certainly not be ideal from a DraftKings scoring standpoint.

At the price point of $8,800, Cuamba likely needs to find a finish here to have a shot at the optimal lineup, and I don’t see that happening at a high rate. Even if he does get a late round, attritional TKO, it likely will not yield enough points to compete with other fighters in the top range.

Official Prediction: Cuamba by Decision

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