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Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Julia Polastri +9.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 14-13 this year*

Similar to the Soriano line last week, I do not understand this one at all. Polastri keeps a high pace on the feet and averages nearly double the significant strikes per minute than her opponent. Knutsson is lower volume and wants to clinch up and grapple. I expect Polastri to be landing more volume on the feet and make her a favorite in this market.

Josefine Knutsson UNDER 61.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 26-19 this year*

Pepe has a bet on this fight… Access here

Josefine Knutsson is a low output fighter and has only gone over this number in her most recent fight where she faced zero resistance. I expect her to cage push and land a couple takedowns as well and do not expect this to be a high volume striking match. She goes under this number the majority of the time.

Nate Maness UNDER 23.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 26-19 this year*

Nate Maness is fighting Jimmy Flick this weekend – enough said. Flick has been knocked out countless times and is always getting hurt on the feet. But he is also a dangerous submission grappler. I expect this fight to end early one way or the other and it likely does not take 28 strikes for that to happen.

Lucas Almeida -3.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 26-19 this year*

Timothy Cuamba is not a high-volume striker by any stretch. Almeida is much more experienced at the UFC level and averages double the amount of significant strikes per minute than Cuamba in this fight. Assuming the fight gets extended, I expect Almeida to have a nice cushion lead in terms of the striking metrics.

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