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Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Timothy Cuamba UNDER 92.5 Fantasy Points – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 15-7 this year*

Timothy Cuamba is a low volume striker that does not carry a ton of power. I am not sure why he is a sizable favorite in this fight and not confident he even wins, let alone scores well. I truly do not understand this line and think he can go under even in a win.

Josefine Knutsson UNDER 60.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 22-17 this year*

Pepe has a bet on this fight… Access here

Josefine Knutsson is a low output fighter and has only gone over this number in her most recent fight where she faced zero resistance. I expect her to cage push and land a couple takedowns as well and do not expect this to be a high volume striking match. She goes under this number the majority of the time.

Asu Almabaev UNDER 12.5 Fight Time – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 22-17 this year*

Almabaev should have a submission grappling advantage and Jose Johnson always puts himself in bad spots during grappling exchanges. On the feet, both guys swing hard and can be hurt as well. This fight has multiple ways of going under and the 2.5 rounds is juiced to the under (-150) so I doubt this stays up on PrizePicks the entire week.

Nate Maness UNDER 27.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 22-17 this year*

Nate Maness is fighting Jimmy Flick this weekend – enough said. Flick has been knocked out countless times and is always getting hurt on the feet. But he is also a dangerous submission grappler. I expect this fight to end early one way or the other and it likely does not take 28 strikes for that to happen.

PS. If you want to start taking this seriously, I strongly recommend checking out the tools and resources that come with a FightNumbers subscription. Our betting subscribers all agree they have increased their expected value with a subscription – Check it out here.