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Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Punahele Soriano +11.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 12-13 this year*

Run, don’t walk to Underdog Fantasy to get this line. Rivals is typically where we see the biggest edges on Underdog and that’s what we have here. Baeza is not a high-volume striker and may even look to grapple in this matchup. Regardless, I expect Soriano to be very competitive in terms of the numbers and there is a chance for an early finish which adds more value to this line.

Eduarda Moura UNDER 63.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 12-13 this year*

This line is a big overcorrection to Moura’s last fight where she landed nearly 60 significant strikes before finishing the fight in the second round. However, she lived in full mount during that fight against someone that gave her zero resistance on the mat. She is a one-dimensional grappler and facing someone that has legitimate knockout power if she cannot get the takedowns.

Rayanne Amanda UNDER 60.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 25-17 this year*

Rayanne Amanda is primarily a grappler and will have a big edge on the mat against Puja Tomar who was submitted multiple times on the regional scene. On the flip side, Tomar has some power herself and I doubt this turns into a 15 minute striking match which is what Amanda would need to go over this number.

John Castaneda +3.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 25-17 this year*

I think the Daniel Marcos significant strike numbers are currently inflated. His last fight, he faced Aori Qileng who is a punching bag and he landed a ton of strikes through two rounds which clearly inflates his numbers on a small sample size. But when he faced decent competition in the past like the Davey Grant fight, he got clearly outlanded. Castaneda is a good striker and has fought better competition and you can make an argument that he should be the favorite in this market.

Julian Marquez UNDER 29.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 25-17 this year*

Pepe Silvia has a bet on this fight… Find out who he’s backing here

Marquez is a low volume guy to begin with but he is also facing Zach Reese and this fight is favored to end inside the first round and a half. Both guys have power and both guys have submission upside as well. I see this one ending very early and would be surprised to see Marquez surpass this number.

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