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Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Eduarda Moura UNDER 60.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 14-7 this year*

This line is a big overcorrection to Moura’s last fight where she landed nearly 60 significant strikes before finishing the fight in the second round. However, she lived in full mount during that fight against someone that gave her zero resistance on the mat. She is a one-dimensional grappler and facing someone that has legitimate knockout power if she cannot get the takedowns.

Rayanne Amanda UNDER 60.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 19-16 this year*

Rayanne Amanda is primarily a grappler and will have a big edge on the mat against Puja Tomar who was submitted multiple times on the regional scene. On the flip side, Tomar has some power herself and I doubt this turns into a 15 minute striking match which is what Amanda would need to go over this number.

Julian Marquez UNDER 30.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 19-16 this year*

Pepe Silvia has a bet on this fight… Find out who he’s backing here

Marquez is a low volume guy to begin with but he is also facing Zach Reese and this fight is favored to end inside the first round and a half. Both guys have power and both guys have submission upside as well. I see this one ending very early and would be surprised to see Marquez surpass this number.

Taylor Lapilus UNDER 84.5 Fantasy Points – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 19-16 this year*

Our team of MMA Betting experts are all aligned on this fight… Access here

I am less confident than the market that Lapilus even wins this fight let alone scores well. His fighting style is not one that translates well to scoring fantasy points. He is primarily a striker but tends to get stuck on the fence a lot and will even give up takedowns. He has virtually no finishing upside and even if he wins a decision, he likely goes under this number.

Miguel Baeza UNDER 46.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 19-16 this year*

Baeza returns to the octagon after a two-year layoff. This layoff was likely time for his brain to recover from back to back brutal knockouts. His durability makes him entirely untrustworthy and he is facing someone with legitimate knockout power in Punahele Soriano. He would also have a big submission grappling edge if he chooses to go the safer route but both ways lean towards an under here.

Raul Rosas Jr. UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 7-6 this year*

Rosas Jr. is low volume on the feet as he desperately needs to get the fight to the mat and waste no time in doing so. I expect the takedowns and control to be there and potentially find a submission. But even if he doesn’t he could still go under his number as he does not land many strikes in grappling exchanges and has gassed out in the past in the final round.

PS. If you want to start taking this seriously, I strongly recommend checking out the tools and resources that come with a FightNumbers subscription. Our betting subscribers all agree they have increased their expected value with a subscription – Check it out here.