Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Alex Morono UNDER 55.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 14-7 this year*

Alex Morono does keep a decent pace on the feet but he is facing someone in Niko Price that simply does not have a chin anymore. Price has been knocked out five times in his career including his last fight and Morono has underrated power. Morono also has durability issues of his own and was knocked out the first time these two fought many years ago.

Islam Makhachev UNDER 33.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 18-15 this year*

It is no secret that Makhachev will be looking to grapple early and often in this fight. He will be at a striking disadvantage against Dustin Poirier and will have a big edge on the mat. He has only gone over this total in four of his UFC fights and those all went 15 minutes or longer. i do not expect this one to get extended and even if it does, we are still live to cash the under on this number.

Jailton Almeida UNDER 3.0 takedowns – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 18-15 this year*

Pepe Silvia has a bet on this fight… Find out who he’s backing here

Jailton Almeida is an aggressive wrestler and averages nearly seven takedowns per 15 minutes. I expect him to pursue the grappling from the jump against Alexandr Romanov. But expecting him to land four or more takedowns seems like a stretch because then you are betting on Romanov’s ability to work back to his feet which I’m skeptical of. Romanov is notorious for gassing out quickly and if he is getting rag dolled by Almeida it likely happens quickly. maybe he can work back up once or twice but he is going to have to prove it to me at this number.

Randy Brown OVER 59.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 7-6 this year*

Randy Brown has gone over this number in his last four decision victories. He keeps a decent pace on the feet and will have a willing dance partner this weekend so I expect the output to be there. I think you’re really only fading a finish on either side and I’m willing to bet against that as I expect this to go 15 minutes the majority of the time.

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