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Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Emily Ducote -17.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 11-10 this year*

I usually avoid the big spreads on these but this is my favorite play on the board this week. Ducote nearly averages twice as many significant strikes per minute than her opponent, Vanessa Demopolous. Demopolous is a punching bag on the feet and gets tired after round one and Ducote has landed over 100+ significant strikes in all but one UFC fight. This is very strong.

Edson Barboza +6.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 11-10 this year*

The Ducote line is stronger but this is still a great value as Barboza averages more significant strikes per minute than Lerone Murphy. He also has the experience in main events and I could see him getting ahead with the leg kicks. I make Barboza a slight favorite in this category.

Abus Magomedov UNDER 31.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 22-15 this year*

Magomedov is an explosive fighter with clear finishing ability as he has finished most of his career wins early in fights. But he also has durability issues and is facing someone that is similar in their early explosiveness. This fight has multiple ways of finishing early and both of which means he goes under this number.

Piera Rodriguez OVER 2.5 Takedowns – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 22-15 this year*

Pepe Silvia has a bet on this fight… Find out who they are betting here

Rodriguez averages 3.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and I expect her to use the wrestling in this fight. Carnelossi defends takedowns at just 8% in the UFC and has been outgrappled in nearly all of her fights. I think Rodriguez lands three or more takedowns at a high clip if the fight goes the full 15 minutes.

Melissa Gatto UNDER 55.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 22-15 this year*

Gatto typically keeps a decent pace on the feet but I expect her to use her grappling more in this matchup. Her opponent, Tamires Vidal has terrible defensive grappling and I expect Gatto to get this fight to the ground and potentially find a submission. If she goes over this number then she likely made this fight much harder than it needed to be.

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