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There are nuances to profitable sports betting and one obvious one is using the live markets to hedge or arb on your bets. In a sport as volatile as MMA, we need to use any perceived edge we can find to our advantage.

Live betting is one of the biggest edges currently in MMA and our odds screen updates in real-time during events to show you the best prices available.

There are 12 bouts scheduled to take place this Saturday night at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas and I am going to touch on a fight that I think projects really well from a live-betting perspective.

Angela Hill (-140) vs Luana Pinheiro (+120)

I have no interest in betting or parlaying Angela Hill at this current number despite picking her to win this fight, but I may have some interest in betting on a better number after round 1.

Basically, I think that this fight likely goes to decision and the oddsmakers agree seeing as it is currently lined (-400) to do just that. This means that there will likely be a full 15 minutes to find a betting opportunity on one or both combatants.

I expect this fight to be very competitive and I see it playing out in a way that aligns best with a live-betting approach. Luana Pinheiro should win round one here and she may even do it decisively. Throughout much of her career, Pinheiro has done well to dominate her opponent early in bouts before slowing down as the fight progresses. She is coming off of a third-round loss to Amanda Ribas back in November and the striking metrics from that fight corroborate my position.

In round one, Pinheiro attempted 54 strikes. In round two, she attempted 35 strikes. In round three, she attempted only 12 strikes before being finished with a little over a minute remaining in the bout. Her fight against Michelle Waterson from April of last year tells a very similar story with Pinheiro only landing 10 strikes all of round three.

Ultimately, I think that Pinheiro is very live to win round one against the 39-year-old Angela Hill with her superior Judo/clinch game. However, despite her age, Angela Hill remains a very competent fighter in the UFC strawweight division and should be able to run away on striking volume the longer the fight plays out. I am looking to enter into a position on Angela Hill at some point towards the end of round 1 as I think she is much more likely to win rounds two and three than she is to win round one. I will be using our odds screen to get the best price available across the market.  

Official Prediction: Angela Hill by 29-28 Decision

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