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Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Abus Magomedov UNDER 33.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 13-7 this year*

Magomedov is an explosive fighter with clear finishing ability as he has finished most of his career wins early in fights. But he also has durability issues and is facing someone that is similar in their early explosiveness. This fight has multiple ways of finishing early and both of which means he goes under this number.

Piera Rodriguez OVER 2.5 Takedowns – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 17-13 this year*

Pepe Silvia has a bet on this fight… Find out who they are betting here

Rodriguez averages 3.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and I expect her to use the wrestling in this fight. Carnelossi defends takedowns at just 8% in the UFC and has been outgrappled in nearly all of her fights. I think Rodriguez lands three or more takedowns at a high clip if the fight goes the full 15 minutes.

Melissa Gatto UNDER 55.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 17-13 this year*

Gatto typically keeps a decent pace on the feet but I expect her to use her grappling more in this matchup. Her opponent, Tamires Vidal has terrible defensive grappling and I expect Gatto to get this fight to the ground and potentially find a submission. If she goes over this number then she likely made this fight much harder than it needed to be.

Lerone Murphy UNDER 1.5 takedowns – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 17-13 this year*

Lerone Murphy only averages 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and has never landed multiple takedowns until his last UFC fight. Barboza is not easy to takedown and I think Murphy is perfectly content with striking with him on the feet where he can potentially hurt him as well so we have multiple outs to go under this number.

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