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To win big money in large field GPP tournaments on DraftKings, you need to find high upside targets that give you leverage over much of the field.

When you take down a GPP, you would prefer to not split the top prize with 2,000 other people. With a limited number of lineups, the goal is to find a healthy balance between high upside targets with low ownership projections.

Every slate is different, however, and sometimes it is just as important to recognize which fighters to fade as it is which fighters to roster. In this article, I will give my favorite leverage play and my favorite fighter to fade for this week’s slate.

FAVORITE GPP PLAY OF THE WEEK

Ihor Poteria $6,600         

The betting line in this fight is absolutely absurd in my opinion as Michel Pereira is currently a (-700) favorite to beat Ihor Poteria this Saturday night at UFC 301.

I understand that Pereira should be favored and why people are not generally very high on his opponent, Ihor Poteria, but (-700)?!?! Listen, this is a large field GPP play that I plan on rostering. Do I actually favor Poteria to win the fight? No. However, if Poteria is able to get it done this week and come through as a massive underdog, then I expect him to put up a very large score on DraftKings at a very low ownership.

Michel Pereira, who is still new to the Middleweight division, has looked dominant recently, but real ones know that he is a highly flawed fighter. He is not the most intelligent or calculated fighter, he struggles with takedown defense at times, and has had inconsistent demonstrations of cardiovascular endurance over the years.

Poteria, is also very flawed as a fighter and routinely struggled in the cardio department. However, Poteria is only 27 years old and has a very sold frame for the division. Despite some of his awful past performances in the UFC, I actually think he is improving as a fighter. He won his last fight by unanimous decision and was priced at $7400 against Robert Bryczek back in February of this year. In this victory, he landed 67 significant strikes and scored a knockdown.

Despite losing in the second round of his previous fight to Rodolfo Bellato, Poteria landed 67 strikes again with a knockdown. Basically, I think that Poteria has a chance of breaking the slate this weekend against Michel Pereira. On a slate with a ton of very wide betting lines, someone is going be the parlay buster, and I would not be the least bit shocked if Pereira fumbled the bag against Poteria on Saturday night.

Official Prediction: Igor Poteria KO2

Favorite GPP FADE of the Week

Vitor Petrino $9,400

Anthony Smith is a veteran of the UFC and while I do not think he wins this week, I think that he has a skillset that can ruin Vitor Petrino’s shot at ending up on the optimal lineup this week.

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There are several fighters in the top range who I believe are likely to put up large scores and compete for the optimal lineup, but Petrino is not one of them this week. My rational for fading him is that Anthony Smith has proven time and time again over the years that he is an elite punching bag.

Smith is capable of losing decisively, but in the process, not allowing his opponent to find an easy path to a finish. He is incredibly comfortable turtling up on the ground and letting the round clock tick down for as long as is necessary for him to simply survive. This type of dynamic is not something that I look for when trying to project high ceilings on DraftKings.

There is also the possibility that Petrino just loses to Smith on Saturday and busts completely. Smith is a very underrated grappler and Petrino has shown a propensity for losing dominant position on the ground. A great example of this is his bout against Anton Turkalji from a couple of years ago.

If Petrino gets sloppy with his positional control on Saturday, I would not be shocked if Smith finds an opportunistic submission and shocks the world. I bet this fight to go to decision at +200.

Official Prediction: Vitor Petrino by decision

Gotta Risk it for the Biscuit.

Dream, Believe, And Make It Happen.   

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