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Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Vitor Petrino UNDER 36.5 Significant Strikes – 5 Stars
*5 star plays are 11-6 this year*

Vitor Petrino is historically low volume and is averaging just under 2.75 significant strikes per minute. He has gone under this number even in a decision victory in his last fight so it’s possible that can happen again if he relies on his grappling. Additionally, he has big power when he does land and Anthony Smith has been knocked out more times than I can count.

Mauricio Ruffy UNDER 46.5 Significant Strikes – 4 Stars
*4 star plays are 15-11 this year*

Ruffy is mostly a counter striker and he is facing Jamie Mullarkey who has very little durability as he has been knocked out five times in his career. If Mullarkey stays alive, there is also a chance he can try to grapple Ruffy although I doubt he does. We have multiple ways to go under this number

Dione Barbose UNDER 41.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 15-11 this year*

Pepe Silvia has a bet on this fight… Find out who he’s backing here

Barbosa is primarily a grappler as she comes from an olympic Judo background and holds a black belt in BJJ. I think this line is inflated due to the fight that her opponent, Kareckaite had on Contender Series which was a high volume war. But I don’t trust the defensive grappling of Kareckaite and think she gets taken down multiple times and likely submitted.

Alexandre Pantoja Fight Time OVER 18.5 Minutes
*3 star plays are 6-6 this year*

Pantoja is very dangerous in round one but then tends to slow due to his cardio management. If he does not get the finish early then I favor this fight to go to decision and currently the over 3.5 rounds prop is juiced to the over with the best available line currently at (-140) at Superbook, courtesy of our best prices Odds Screen.

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