Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Ryan Spann UNDER 17.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 10-6 this year*

Ryan Spann has only gone over this number three times in the UFC and they were the only three times his fights reached the third round. He has knockout power on the feet and an aggressive submission grappling game as well but his durability is a glaring issue. He is also facing someone with legitimate defensive concerns who also carries knockout power. This fight is a car crash that ends early at a high clip.

Michal Figlak UNDER 1.5 Takedowns – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 14-10 this year*

Figlak is not a good wrestler and Fares Ziam was able to defend four of the five attempts by Figlak in his debut. Now he is coming off a long layoff and a complete ACL tear. He is also facing Austin Hubbard who is harder to take down then his stats indicate and could even wrestle himself here. I think he goes under this roughly 75% of the time.

Matheus Nicolau Fight Time OVER 20.5 Minutes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 14-10 this year*

Matheus Nicolau is primarily a decision style of fighter as all but three of his UFC fights have gone the distance. He has some durability concerns but Alex Perez is a wrestler and not really a power puncher. On the flip side, Perez always seems to put himself in bad spots grappling but Nicolau is not an aggressive submission grappler. I see this fight going the full 25 minutes more times than not.

Ivana Petrovic UNDER 28.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 6-5 this year*

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Petrovic only landed 22 significant strikes in her debut that went the full 15 minutes. She is low volume on the feet and typically wants to take her opponents down and control them on the mat. She is also facing Na Liang who is very aggressive trying to finish the fight in round one. This fight could end early but even if it doesn’t, we still have some outs to go under this number.

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