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Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Jamahal Hill +4.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 8-7 this year*

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This line makes no sense to me and is by far my favorite play on the board this week. Hill is way more active on the feet and even coming off the injury I expect him to be landing more in striking exchanges. He should be a clear favorite in this market.

Jiri Prozachka -2.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 8-7 this year*

This is another one that is confusing to me. Prozachka averages over 1.3 significant strikes more than Rakic historically. I expect him to be much more active in striking exchanges as the aggressor. Rakic likely needs to mix in the grappling here but I doubt he is out voluming Prozachka if the fight gets out of the first round at all.

Jalin Turner UNDER 42.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 15-12 this year*

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Turner keeps a high pace on the feet but I still like him to go under this number. This matchup is very binary in the sense that if Turner is having this much success on the feet then he is likely hurting and finishing Renato Moicano. On the flip side, Moicano is very dangerous if he gets the back and he has some finishing upside as well.

Bo Nickal UNDER 16.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 15-12 this year*

Nickal is yet to come close to this number as he is finishing all of his opponents within a couple minutes. But I expect there to be more grappling in this fight as Brundage will look to pull guillotine at his first opportunity. This likely means we see less significant strikes from Nickal as he will out grapple and eventually submit Brundage.

Deiveson Figueiredo UNDER 38.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 15-12 this year*

Figueiredo is generally a low volume striker as he averages right around three significant strikes per minute. But he is very powerful and facing someone in Cody Garbrandt that has serious durability concerns. Figueiredo also has a great guillotine that he will look for if Garbrandt chooses to wrestle.

Arman Tsarukyan OVER 8 minutes fight time – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 15-12 this year*

I usually don’t play the ones that have just one way to get there but this one seems solid to me. Tsarukyan has power on the feet but Oliveira can flop to his back when he gets hurt and Tsarukyan will likely just consolidate position to avoid the dangerous guard of Oliveira. I could see this one starting slow with both guys respecting each other and then eventually a lot of control on the mat from Tsarukyan.

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