Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Jalin Turner UNDER 40.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 9-6 this year*

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Turner keeps a high pace on the feet but I still like him to go under this number. This matchup is very binary in the sense that if Turner is having this much success on the feet then he is likely hurting and finishing Renato Moicano. On the flip side, Moicano is very dangerous if he gets the back and he has some finishing upside as well.

Deiveson Figueiredo UNDER 37.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 11-10 this year*

Figueiredo is generally a low volume striker as he averages right around three significant strikes per minute. But he is very powerful and facing someone in Cody Garbrandt that has serious durability concerns. Figueiredo also has a great guillotine that he will look for if Garbrandt chooses to wrestle.

Arman Tsarukyan Fight Time OVER 8.5 Minutes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 11-10 this year*

I usually don’t play the ones that have just one way to get there but this one seems solid to me. Tsarukyan has power on the feet but Oliveira can flop to his back when he gets hurt and Tsarukyan will likely just consolidate position to avoid the dangerous guard of Oliveira. I could see this one starting slow with both guys respecting each other and then eventually a lot of control on the mat from Tsarukyan.

Bo Nickal UNDER 14.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 11-10 this year*

Nickal is yet to come close to this number as he is finishing all of his opponents within a couple minutes. But I expect there to be more grappling in this fight as Brundage will look to pull guillotine at his first opportunity. This likely means we see less significant strikes from Nickal as he will out grapple and eventually submit Brundage.

Aljamain Sterling UNDER 86.5 Fantasy Points – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 6-4 this year*

Sterling is always capable of finding the back and turning it into an early submission. But I have concerns with him moving up a weight class and fighting someone that is historically tough to take down and submit. I am not even confident that he wins let alone finds an early finish and that is likely what he needs to go over this number.

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