fbpx

We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 300! We have a historic PPV card this weekend stacked from top to bottom and a 13-fight slate on DraftKings. It also helps that on DraftKings we have another $200,000 to first place in the main contest!

As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter  with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Cody Garbrandt
Figueiredo, -290; Garbrandt, +235

Deiveson Figueiredo made his debut at Bantamweight in December and beat Rob Font to the tune of a unanimous decision. He was known for being one of the hardest hitters at 125 lbs. and it’s clear that his power will translate to this division as well. Aside from the power on the feet, he has a nasty guillotine choke as well and has finished 17 of his 22 career wins inside the distance. The main concern with Figueiredo is his cardio as he has faded in extended fights in the past.

His opponent, Cody Garbrandt is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Brian Kelleher at UFC 296 in December. Garbrandt is a technical boxer with fast hands and solid footwork. He is also capable of landing takedowns although he rarely goes to it and likely will not want to in this matchup. The obvious concern with Garbrandt is his durability as he has been knocked out four times in his career.

This should be all Figueiredo in my opinion. His power makes him dangerous to finish in any of the striking exchanges and if Garbrandt tries to wrestle him then he could snatch up his neck. Figueiredo by TKO is the official pick.

Bobby Green vs Jim Miller
Green, -180; Miller, +150

Bobby Green is coming off a first-round TKO loss to Jalin Turner in December in what was an absolutely brutal stoppage.

He is a technical boxer with a great jab and quick combinations. He fights with his hands down mostly but rolls with punches well for the most part. But you can hurt him on the feet and he has been knocked out five times in his career including the brutal knockout loss in December.

His opponent, Jim Miller is making UFC history as the only UFC fighter to fight at UFC 100, UFC 200 and now UFC 300 this weekend. A10 is an absolute legend in the fight game and even at 40 years old, he is a tough out for any opponent. He is mostly known for his submission grappling as he has 20 career submission victories and holds a black belt in BJJ. But his boxing is solid as well as his leg kicks that he will look for repeatedly. The issue with Miller is that he can be stung on the feet as well and his cardio definitely fades as the fight gets into round three.

I understand why Green is the favorite as he should be the better pure boxer of the two but I expect the fight to be very competitive. I will have more exposure to Miller on DraftKings for the price and upside but the official pick is Green by decision as that is the most likely outcome.

Jessica Andrade vs Marina Rodriguez
Andrade, -135; Rodriguez, +114

Pepe Sylvia has a bet on this fight… Find out who he is backing NOW

Jessica Andrade is coming off a TKO finish over Mackenzie Dern her last time out in November. She is a powerful striker and wants to move forward and bomb on you. Her striking defense is nonexistent at times as she is very hittable and can be wobbled in those exchanges. She is capable of landing takedowns but rarely uses her grappling even in matchups like this where it would be an obvious advantage.

Her opponent, Marina Rodriguez is coming off a TKO victory over Michelle Waterson last September. She is primarily a striker and keeps a solid pace on the feet with sharp elbows as well. But she is very one-dimensional as she has no ground game and needs to hurt her opponents to clearly separate in rounds. She is also turning 37 years old in a few weeks which is a slight concern.

I prefer the Andrade side as the younger, more explosive fighter with more power on the feet and potential grappling upside as well. Andrade by decision is the official pick.

Jalin Turner vs Renato Moicano
Turner, -238; Moicano, +195

Jalin Turner is coming off a first-round TKO victory over Bobby Green that I mentioned earlier. He is a very explosive striker with legitimate knockout power. Of his 14 career victories, 10 of them have come by knockout. His defensive grappling has improved over the years as well and that will likely be tested in this matchup. The main concern with Turner is that he is huge for the division and cuts a lot of weight so naturally he slows down in the later half of fights.

His opponent, Renato Moicano is coming off a decision win over Drew Dober in February. He has now won four of his last five fights but it wasn’t a flawless run. He took an absolute beat down at the hands of Rafael Dos Anjos and was hurt multiple times in the Dober fight which came down to a mistake by Dober in the final round. On the feet, he has some power but he does not have the durability to go to war with Turner in the stand up. He needs to get the fight to the ground and he averages 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is one of the best back takers in the division and that is likely his win condition.

Moicano is always dangerous which means you want some exposure to him on DraftKings considering how cheap he is. But the most likely outcome is that he gets hurt on the feet by Turner in one of the first two rounds. Turner by TKO is the official pick and this is a great fight to target on DraftKings.

Diego Lopes vs Sodiq Yusuff
Lopes, -142; Yusuff, +120

Diego Lopes is coming off an electric first-round TKO victory over Pat Sabatini at UFC 295 last November. He is never in a boring fight which also means his fights have a good chance to score well on DraftKings. He is not super technical on the feet, but he is explosive and clearly has power. But his submission grappling is his best asset as he is dangerous on the mat and has 12 career submission victories. The concern with Lopes is that his wrestling is not good and he likely needs big moments and finishes as opposed to winning rounds for 15 minutes.

His opponent, Sodiq Yusuff is coming off a main event decision loss to Edson Barboza in October. He is primarily a boxer and has a great jab that is likely his best weapon. He has also shown he can mix in some grappling here and there, but he will need to avoid grappling at all costs in this fight. I expect Yusuff to be the more technical striker on the feet, but he has been hurt multiple times on the feet including his last fight which is a concern.

Lopes is very explosive and has more finishing potential in this fight. But I always tend to lean on the better minute winner and that is Yusuff in this matchup. I expect him to be the better striker over 15 minutes and he is a pretty solid grappler in his own right so he should be able to stay safe from the early submission threat. Yusuff by decision is the official pick but I will likely have more Lopes exposure on DraftKings as his round one finishing upside is higher.

Kayla Harrison vs Holly Holm
Harrison, -500; Holm, +340

Kayla Harrison makes her UFC debut this weekend. I wish I could pretend to be excited for it but I’m not. This is likely the only boring fight of the entire card. Harrison previously fought over in PFL and is the former champion over there. She sports a 16-1 professional record and trains out of American Top Team. She is very physically strong and is able to lean on her wrestling to dominate many of her past opponents.

Her opponent, Holly Holm is coming off a submission loss to Mayra Bueno Silva which was later turned into a no contest. Holm turns 43 years old later this year and it’s clear that her best days are behind her. She will likely try her typical boring cage pushing style in this fight but it’s not going to work. Harrison is younger and much more physical as well and should be fine in this matchup. Harrison by decision is the official pick but I do not have much interest in either fighter on DraftKings.

Aljamain Sterling vs Calvin Kattar
Sterling, -155; Kattar, +130

Aljamain Sterling is making his Featherweight debut this weekend. He is coming off a second-round TKO loss in the title fight against Sean O’Malley last August. Sterling is the former Bantamweight champion, but I still have concerns about whether some of his advantages will translate to the new weight class. At 135 lbs. he was known for being bigger than many of his opponents and although his wrestling has never been great, he could use his strength and size to force grappling exchanges and find the back. On the feet, he has an awkward striking style but typically pushes a high pace until he starts to get tired.

His opponent, Calvin Kattar is coming off the TKO loss to Arnold Allen where he blew out his knee at the end of the first round. He is currently on a two-fight losing streak and this is his first fight back from post ACL surgery. When healthy, Kattar is one of the best boxers in the Featherweight division. He typically starts slow as he gets his reads but eventually starts to open up and use his jab and elbows very effectively. He is historically tough to take down as well as he defends takedowns above 90% in the UFC which will be put to the test in this fight.

There are concerns on both sides of this matchup, but I feel the market is overvaluing Sterling’s ability to translate his success to the new weight class. Kattar is a better striker; has better cardio and I trust his durability more as well. Sterling needs back takes to win this fight and I am less convinced than the market that those positions come easily against someone as well-rounded as Kattar. Kattar by decision is the official pick.

Aleksandar Rakic vs Jiri Prozachka
Rakic, -122; Prozachka, +102

Aleksandar Rakic is coming off nearly a two-year layoff since he tore his ACL against Jan Blachowicz in May of 2022. When healthy, Rakic is a very well-rounded fighter with devastating leg kicks and knockout power. But he has also shown he is capable of mixing in the grappling as he has proven he can control his opponents on the mat. Aside from the layoff and post-injury concern, the issue with Rakic is that he usually does not go to his wrestling as often as he should.

His opponent, Jiri Prozachka is coming off a knockout loss to Alex Pereira at UFC 295. Prozachka is a wild man both in and outside of the octagon. He wants to move forward and push a high pace on the feet. He is not technically sound and his style is unorthodox but he is very powerful. Of his 29 career victories, 25 of them have come by knockout. The concern with him is that his striking defense is nonexistent, and he continuously gets hurt in striking exchanges. He has been knocked out four times in his career and was hurt in each of his wins in the UFC as well.

I expect Rakic to be the better round winner in this fight. Prozachka is very susceptible to leg kicks which happens to be Rakic best weapon. Additionally, I trust the durability of Rakic more and he has nearly all the wrestling upside in this fight as well. Rakic by TKO is the official pick.

Bo Nickal vs Cody Brundage
Nickal, -2100; Brundage, +1100

Bo Nickal makes his return to the octagon after a first-round TKO victory over Val Woodburn at UFC 290 last year. The former Penn State All-American wrestler is just 5-0 professionally with all five wins coming inside the first round. The wrestling is next level, and he has been developing his striking as well and it is clear he can hurt you on the feet. The only concern with Nickal is that we have never seen him fight longer than three minutes, but it doesn’t matter in this fight.

His opponent, Cody Brundage is coming off a first-round TKO victory over Zachary Reese in December. Brundage comes from a collegiate wrestling background as well, but he couldn’t sniff Bo Nickal’s jock strap in that category. He likely needs to land a big overhand early or snatch up a guillotine which he looks for in all of his fights. Lastly, Brundage has some quit in him mentally and has been finished in three of his five professional losses.

This should be another highlight on Nickal’s belt. Hopefully they give him a legitimate test in the near future, but Brundage isn’t that guy. Nickal by first-round submission is the official pick and he is an obvious target on DraftKings.

Arman Tsarukyan vs Charles Oliveira
Tsarukyan, -225; Oliveira, +185

Arman Tsarukyan is coming off an electric first-round knockout victory over Beneil Dariush in December. He is currently on a three-fight winning streak since his main event loss to Mateusz Gamrot. Tsarukyan is an exceptional athlete and he is very physically strong. He wrestles at a fairly high rate and averages just under 3.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. But he has explosive power on the feet as well when he lets his hands go and nine of his 21 career wins have come by knockout. Lastly, his cardio is great and he can push a solid pace for as long as is needed.

His opponent, Charles Oliveira is coming off a first-round TKO victory over Dariush as well. We know what Oliveira brings to the table with the most finishes in UFC history. He is powerful on the feet and is arguably the most dangerous fighter on the roster when the fight hits the mat. The issue with him has always been his durability as he gets rocked constantly on the feet and has been finished in eight of his nine professional losses.

Oliveira is always dangerous regardless of who is fighting so for that reason, you want to have exposure to him on DraftKings. But I think the more likely outcome is that Tsarukyan likely hurts him on the feet or takes him down and does damage in top position while staying safe from submission attempts. Tsarukyan by TKO is the official pick and this is another great fight to target on DraftKings.

Justin Gaethje vs Max Holloway
Gaethje, -175; Holloway, +145

Justin Gaethje is coming off a knockout victory over Dustin Poirier at UFC 291 last July. He is currently on a two-fight winning streak and is fighting for the BMF title this weekend. Gaethje is a walking highlight-reel and is allergic to boring fights so I know this one will deliver as well. He pushes a high pace on the feet with some of the hardest leg kicks in the game and 20 of his 25 career wins have come by knockout.

His opponent, Max Holloway is moving up to the Lightweight division to challenge Gaethje for the BMF belt. He remains one of the best strikers in the division and on the roster and keeps a high pace that not many people are able to keep up with. He is also very difficult to grapple with, which forces his opponents to stand and trade with him. The main concern with Holloway in this matchup is how he deals with the leg kicks of Gaethje.

This is an awesome fight with two legends of the sport going at it. I expect both fighters to get off in combinations throughout the fight. However, I slightly favor Gaethje as the more powerful striker and think his leg kicks can make a difference as well. Gaethje by decision is the official pick and take note this fight is a five rounder as well.

Zhang Weili vs Yan Xiaonan
Weili, -500; Xiaonan, +380

One of our MMA experts has a bet on this fight… Get access NOW

Zhang Weili is coming off a dominant performance against Amanda Lemos at UFC 292 last August. She was so clearly the better fighter that the fight itself was non-competitive in any area. Weili is a well-rounded fighter that keeps a high pace on the feet and carries some power for the division. But she has a solid ground game as well and will look for takedowns when she has that advantage and averages 2.29 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Her opponent, Yan Xiaonan is coming off a first-round TKO victory over Jessica Andrade last May. Her only UFC losses came against the former champion, Carla Esparza and a split-decision loss to Marina Rodriguez. She keeps a high striking pace as well and will be competitive while the fight plays out on the feet. But her issue is that her takedown defense is not great at 70% and likely inflated due to facing poor wrestlers in the past. Once taken down, she does not have much of a get up game which is a problem against Weili.

This line is getting a bit out of hand because I do think Xiaonan is very competitive in the striking. But the ground game advantage for Weili is likely to much to overcome. Weili by decision is the official pick and she is a great target on DraftKings.

Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill
Pereira, -130; Hill, +110

Pepe Sylvia has a bet on this fight… Get access NOW

Alex Pereira looks to defend the Light Heavyweight strap this weekend. He is coming off a TKO victory over Jiri Prozachka last November. The former Middleweight champion is 2-0 in this division and looking to keep that streak going against the challenger, Jamahal Hill. On the feet, Pereira is the cleaner striker as he comes from a high-level kickboxing background. He has clear knockout power with his devastating hooks and seven of his nine career wins have come by knockout.

His opponent, Jamahal Hill is coming off a 15-month layoff since he won the belt. He relinquished the title last July when an Achilles injury forced him on the sidelines. Achilles is a brutal injury to come back from and Hill has looked out of shape in every picture and video that I have seen since the injury. When healthy, Hill is a dangerous striker with seven of his 12 career wins coming by knockout. His only professional loss came by an arm injury against Paul Craig.

This is another obvious fight to target on DraftKings as either guy can win by early knockout and they are both priced in the mid-range. I slightly favor Pereira as the cleaner striker and I have my doubts that Hill is the same fighter post-injury but I also think Hill’s durability is clearly better than Pereira which could be the ultimate difference maker. For that reason, I will be hedging it on DraftKings and splitting my exposure between the two. Hill by TKO is the official pick.

Interested in taking your DraftKings play to the next level? you should check out the tools and additional DraftKings and betting content we offer for subscribers. More info available here