Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Brendan Allen UNDER 59.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 7-6 this year*

Brendan Allen has only gone over this number once across his 13 UFC fights. Mostly because his fights tend to end early due to finish. But I expect this one not to go super long either and Allen knows based off the last time they fought that he needs to get this fight to the ground. He was too willing to exchange on the feet and that got him hurt and I expect a more urgent grappling gameplan from him here. If he gets it to the mat, he is live for an early submission, and if he doesn’t then he likely gets hurt on the feet again. But either way, I think this number goes under and we are getting seven strikes higher than the current PrizePicks line.

Lukasz Brzeski +10.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 7-6 this year*

I do not understand this line as Brzeski keeps a high volume pace for the Heavyweight division. It is possible he spends some time on his back here or even much of the fight but anytime this is on the feet, he will be throwing and landing more than his opponent.

Cynthia Calvillo +2.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 7-6 this year*

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This is another line that I think is wrong as Calvillo should be favored to land more significant strikes. She averages one more significant strike per minute than Piera Rodriguez and typically pushes a pace on the feet. We have also seen Rodriguez lean more on the takedowns and have seen her gas in the past as well. Lastly, Calvillo has seen some significant line movement in her favor this week. This should be a close fight either way but I expect Calvillo to outland her if the fight goes 15 minutes.

Dylan Budka UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 14-12 this year*

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Dylan Budka is not a high volume striker at all and in this matchup he will be looking for takedowns early and often. On the feet, he is outclassed and at a risk to get knocked out. Even if he pushes a grappling pace, I expect a lot of cage push and stalling or nonactivity in dominant positions as that is typically how he fights. He only landed 22 significant strikes in his decision win on Contender Series.

Valter Walker UNDER 41.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 1-1 this year*

This one is more of a question mark as we do not have any UFC data from the brother of Johnny Walker yet. However, his fighting style is that he can hurt you on the feet early or he goes to his wrestling and can finish you on the mat. I think either guy can win by early knockout and if not then I expect Walker to get takedowns where he likely won’t be landing significant strikes unless he is threatening a finish with ground and pound.

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