Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Dylan Budka UNDER 34.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 8-6 this year*

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Dylan Budka is not a high volume striker at all and in this matchup he will be looking for takedowns early and often. On the feet, he is outclassed and at a risk to get knocked out. Even if he pushes a grappling pace, I expect a lot of cage push and stalling or nonactivity in dominant positions as that is typically how he fights. He only landed 22 significant strikes in his decision win on Contender Series.

Alexander Hernandez UNDER 91.5 Fantasy Score – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 10-9 this year*

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Hernandez is certainly skilled enough to get a first-round finish over Damon Jackson. But i expect this to be fought at a slower pace and Jackson should not try to engage in pocket exchanges where he usually gets hurt and finished. There should be more grappling in this fight and both guys are competent enough on the mat not to get finished easily. We are basically just fading an early finish to stay under this mark.

Brendan Allen UNDER 52.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 10-9 this year*

Brendan Allen has only gone over this number once across his 13 UFC fights. Mostly because his fights tend to end early due to finish. But I expect this one not to go super long either and Allen knows based off the last time they fought that he needs to get this fight to the ground. He was too willing to exchange on the feet and that got him hurt and I expect a more urgent grappling gameplan from him here. If he gets it to the mat, he is live for an early submission, and if he doesn’t then he likely gets hurt on the feet again. But either way, I think this number goes under.

Valter Walker UNDER 40.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 5-4 this year*

This one is more of a question mark as we do not have any UFC data from the brother of Johnny Walker yet. However, his fighting style is that he can hurt you on the feet early or he goes to his wrestling and can finish you on the mat. I think either guy can win by early knockout and if not then I expect Walker to get takedowns where he likely won’t be landing significant strikes unless he is threatening a finish with ground and pound.

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