fbpx

There are nuances to profitable sports betting and one obvious one is using the live markets to hedge or arb on your bets. In a sport as volatile as MMA, we need to use any perceived edge we can find to our advantage.

There are 13 bouts scheduled to take place this Saturday night at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas and I am going to touch on a couple of these bouts which I think are interesting from a live-betting perspective. Live betting is one of the biggest edges currently in MMA and our odds screen updates in real-time during events to show you the best prices available.

Ignacio Bahamondes (-320) vs Christos Giagos (+270)

    I have no interest in betting or parlaying Ignacio Bahamondes at this current number, but I may have some interest at a better number after round one. Basically, I want to make sure that Bahamondes does not get “bonked” in the first round, because that is most likely Christos’ win condition here.

    Even if Christos is able to win round one with a takedown and some control time, I will still look to play Bahamondes after the first round because of the perceived cardio edge in this fight. Christos’ success historically has been very frontloaded, whereas I believe that Ignacio will have more success in rounds 2 and 3.

    If I am wrong and Ignacio dominates the fight from the very beginning the betting line just gets even wider, well then good for the Bahamondes bettors, but at least I didn’t lose anything.

    Jean Matsumoto (-157) vs Dan Argueta (+137)

    Pepe Silvia has a bet on this fight… Find out who here

    This has potential to be a really awesome fight in the Bantamweight division with undefeated Jean Matsumoto making his octagon debut against four-time UFC veteran Dan Argueta.

    Dan seems to be a popular underdog this week by many people within the MMA betting community. Dan has a strong grappling foundation and most definitely wants to implement a wrestle-heavy gameplan in this matchup with Matsumoto.

    At just 24 years old, it is tough to say what exactly Matsumoto’s ceiling within the promotion is. On his DWCS fight, his striking looked very good to me and he was able to decidedly out strike his opponent, Kasey Tanner. As far as I’m concerned, this is about as binary as fights get. I give Dan about a 3% chance of winning this fight if he is unable to dominate in the grappling.

    Dan is pretty slow and clunky on the feet and I expect that given this discrepancy in skill with his opponent, we should know pretty early in round 1 if Dan is going to be able to get his game going or not. If Matsumoto gets taken down and pops back up, or is just stuffing takedown attempts with ease, I will definitely look to bet him in the live markets asap.

    These are just a few of the spots that I am looking to target live but by using our odds screen and tools you may be able to find some even better spots.

    PS. Our new betting package is now LIVE with an exclusive Odds screen that updates in real-time for live betting along with picks from some of the top MMA handicappers in the industry, Sign up for a FightNumbers subscription.