fbpx

Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Anton Turkalj UNDER 22.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 8-5 this year*

Anton Turkalj is low volume on the feet as he is primarily a grappler and wants to fight on the mat. Additionally, he has clear defensive issues in the striking and is at a legitimate risk to get knocked out early in this fight. But even if he does not get finished early, I expect him to take over quickly in the grappling as his opponent is a total gas can. We have multiple outs here.

Bruno Silva UNDER 30.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 8-9 this year*

Pepe Silvia has a bet on this fight… Find out who here

Bruno Silva has big time early finishing potential against the shell of Chris Weidman. But even if he doesn’t get the early knockout, there is potential for him to be taken down and waste time on his back if Weidman can get the wrestling going. Lastly, Silva is known for having poor cardio so his output is going to slow significantly if the fight gets extended.

Jacob Malkoun UNDER 47.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 8-9 this year*

Malkoun has gone over this number in a few of his fights but I do not think those matchups are relevant to this weekend. He will want no business on the feet against Andre Petroski as Petroski is the better striker and has legitimate knockout power. Malkoun will go the wrestling where either fighter is capable of finishing on the mat. Lastly, Malkoun is typically more focused on control as opposed to inflicting damage so even in a decision, he could go under this number.

Julio Arce Fight Time OVER 7.5 minutes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 5-4 this year*

This one will likely be sweating as Herbert Burns is a legitimately dangerous submission grappler with cardio and durability concerns. But with both fighters coming off lengthy layoffs, this could start slow. Additionally, Arce is typically not a super aggressive finisher so a finish could come later in the fight. Lastly, this prop is juiced to (-130) on some sportsbooks so we are getting slight odds value as well.

PS. Our new betting package is now LIVE with an exclusive Odds screen that updates in real-time for live betting along with picks from some of the top MMA handicappers in the industry, Sign up for a FightNumbers subscription.