There are nuances to profitable sports betting and one obvious one is using the live markets to hedge or arb on your bets. In a sport as volatile as MMA, we need to use any perceived edge we can find to our advantage.

There are 14 bouts scheduled to take place this Saturday night in Atlantic City, NJ and there are a few potential live betting targets for this fight card.

Anton Turkalj (-102) vs Ibo Aslan -118)

This fight in the middleweight division is a rematch from 2020 which resulted in Turkalj winning via round-two submission. In their first fight, Turkalj was largely being dominated by Aslan throughout most of the first round. Aslan is a powerful striker with much more physicality than Turkalj while fresh. After the first round, Aslan was completely out of cardio and the fight was over shortly after he finally conceded a takedown to Turkalj.

Throughout most of his career, Aslan has been using his explosiveness to win fights in the first round. In this particular rematch, I could not imagine betting the Turkalj money line prefight because I think that if he is able to survive the early onslaught, then you will get a much better price on him after the first round. There are countless ways to play any fight, but this is one of those fights where I think you can profit nine times out of 10 by betting Aslan before the fight with an eye on betting Turkalj in the live markets in the event that the fight gets extended.

Our team of MMA experts have multiple 2 Unit bets on this card… Find out who here

Andre Petroski (+195) vs Jacob Malkoun (-230)

This is another fight in the middleweight division that I think is interesting from a live-betting perspective. In this case, I feel strongly that Andre Petroski is the betting side prefight. However, this is one where I would be considering exiting out of my prefight position on Petroski as the fight gets extended.

Both of these fighters are grapplers by trade and their respective striking arsenals leave a lot to be desired. Petroski, for my money, is probably the better grappler of the two. The issue is that Malkoun has proven time and time again that he can wrestle and grapple hard for a full 15-minutes, whereas Petroski’s cardio is much less reliable.

I lean Petroski to at least win the first round of this fight and if he finds a finish here, then I expect it to come in the first round – similar to what happened when he submitted Nick Maximov back in 2022. For this reason, I think it makes sense to bet Petroski before the fight, and potentially bet Jacob Malkoun at plus-money following the first round to lock in guaranteed profit. The sportsbooks have gotten sharper with anticipating cardio collapses, etc. but there are still opportunities to be had.

Even if you don’t want to bet Petroski because you expect Malkoun to win rounds two and three, it also makes sense, in my opinion, to bet Malkoun live as opposed to prefight because I think the fight will certainly be competitive in the early going and most of Petroski’s finish equity will be erased.

Best of luck to everyone on this week’s card!

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