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Each week, I will look at the overall winning lineup for the main tournament on DraftKings. I will list key takeaways and any notable information that we can use going forward.

This lineup used $49,500 and was duplicated just once in the main tournament, taking home a cool $65K for Big T!

The first thing that jumped out to me is the Trey Ogden play. As we got later in the week, I really started believing that Ogden was one of the best plays on the slate due to lower projected ownership as we had him projected at 16% which was among the lowest on the slate.

It was not only about the ownership though, as Ogden has clearly been improving from fight to fight and would likely have a huge grappling edge over Holobaugh who only defends takedowns around 50% in the UFC. I wrote about this in the GPP Leverage column this week as well as we had Holobaugh projected to come in with higher ownership despite being the underdog which made Ogden even more intriguing to me.

Another thing that I wanted to touch on was the Youssef Zalal play. I was baffled to see his ownership come in way lower than I had projected as I expected the field to plug and play the heavy line movement underdog. But he came in more than 10% lower than I expected which was a huge miss and it actually made him a great play at current ownership whereas he was likely a good fade if he came in around 40%.

BigT also targeted fighters that projected well like Edmen Shahbazyan, Peyton Talbott and Julian Erosa which were among some of the top ranked fighters in their salary ranges in my DraftKings fighter rankings. Also, Ozzy and Pepe both hit longshot submission props which they talked about on this week’s betting show and both of those fighters came through with a big score on DraftKings.

The last leverage point that sticks out to me in this lineup is the big fade on the main event. I felt this was an excellent strategy this week as I did not project Namajunas to finish this fight nearly as much as the market was giving her credit to. This meant that even in a victory, it was unlikely Namajunas would hit the optimal lineup which is why I wrote her up as a potential leverage fade in the GPP Leverage column this week as well.

Key Takeaways:

Leverage pivot in the mid-range with clear grappling upside (Trey Ogden)
Big Fade on the main event (eliminated 66% of the field)
Took the obvious line value and let others overthink it (Youssef Zalal)

Overall, this was a great team on a slate that was very difficult. Huge congrats to BigT and best of luck to everyone next week!

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