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“The hidden benefit of antifragility is that you can guess worse than random and still end up outperforming.”Nassim Taleb

Antifragility is defined as, “is a property of systems in which they increase in capability to thrive as a result of stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, mistakes, faults, attacks, or failures.”

This is how we should be playing MMA DFS each week. In a sport that already has so much volatility, it does not make much sense to follow the crowd and hope to get paid off. Trying to predict UFC fights is similar to predicting the weather in that you can use models, statistics, historical data etc., but at some level – it is unpredictable.

If we can agree that fights and thus DraftKings points, are difficult to predict, why would you want to be congregating on the same groups of players as everyone else? Not to mention that DFS is a zero-sum game with all of the prize money up top. So we are even more incentivized to to get away from the field or use an antifragile approach.

This is useful strategy for every MMA DFS slate but especially this one. There are currently two fighters on the entire card at (-200) or higher. We have so many closely lined fights where the underdog is live in basically every matchup. This means that it is likely we see some crazy lineup combinations have a chance to win. There are multiple spots this weekend where we can try to put ourselves in a position to get away from the field and potentially thrive in the chaos.

Trey Ogden vs Kurt Holobaugh

This is one of those classic spots where I am expecting the underdog to be more owned than the favorite. Ogden is not going to be owned much at all despite having a clear path to land takedowns as Holobaugh defends around 50% in the UFC. He also has many submission victories on his record and is coming off a fight where he looked career best and nearly finished with a submission. Lastly, Holobaugh is old and typically fights with a high pace and high-risk style which could lead to a big score from the winner.

Karl Williams vs Justin Tafa

Karl Williams is going to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. He has big time wrestling upside and I will be targeting him as well for that reason. But it’s clear that if Justin Tafa can keep this fight standing, he has a very good chance to hurt Williams and potentially finish him early. I think getting overweight to both sides but specifically the underdog makes a ton of sense from an antifragility standpoint because you are getting leverage over the Williams side.

Rose Namajunas vs Amanda Ribas

Rose Namajunas is also projected to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. Which seems wrong to me because not only did I pick Ribas to win the fight, but I would be surprised to see Namajunas land on the optimal even if she wins. Historically, she is not a high volume striker so you really need a first-round knockout for her to compete with the optimal at her price. Of course, that is possible with Ribas chin issues but I think the market is drastically overrated it and because of that think Rose is a strong fade in DFS and the field will not react that way.

This is a unique type of slate which adds to the importance building lineups in a unique way. By taking an antifragile approach we give ourselves plenty of opportunities to get leverage versus the field and hopefully thrive in the chaos.

As always, best of luck and I’ll see you in the streets.

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