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Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Rose Namajunas UNDER 91.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 7-3 this year*

Thug Rose has only gone over this number once in her career and that was a five-round war against Joanna Jedrzejczuk. She has had multiple five rounders since then and came in under that number. I do not trust the volume to be there especially in a matchup where both fighters are moving around constantly on their bicycle which leads to less exchanges. Additionally, Amanda Ribas is chinny and this line is not giving much respect to the potential of a finish either.

Julian Erosa +2.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 7-3 this year*

Erosa averages nearly double the output than Ricardo Ramos in terms of significant strikes per minute. This line is actually wild. Erosa throws at a much higher pace and will land more as well. The only concern is if Ramos just knocks him out instantly and even in that scenario, Erosa may cover the 2.5 line.

Amanda Ribas +12.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 10-10 this year*

Across 10 UFC fights, Ribas has only failed to cover this spread in one of them. She generally keeps a high pace on the feet and averages more significant strikes per minute than Rose Namajunas. I think the only way Ribas does not cover this line is if she gets tired down the stretch and Namajunas starts teeing off which is something I highly doubt will happen.

Karl Williams UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 10-10 this year*

One of our MMA Experts has a 2 Unit bet on this fight… See what the pick is.

Williams is an aggressive wrestler but he is typically not looking to do much damage as he is focused on controlling his opponents on the mat. His decision win on Contender Series he only landed 24 significant strikes. He went over this number in a decision against Lukasz Brzeski barely but this fight against Justin Tafa has much more of a chance to finish early.

Igor Da Silva +7.5 Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 10-10 this year*

Silva’s opponent, Andre Lima is extremely powerful but he generally keeps a low pace and does not put a ton of activity out there. Meanwhile, Da Silva is going to move forward and throw constant volume which makes me think the 7.5 line is too much even if I expect Lima to win. Clear case of lower volume power shots versus nonstop activity.

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