Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Rose Namajunas UNDER 95.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 7-5 this year*

Thug Rose has only gone over this number once in her career and that was a five-round war against Joanna Jedrzejczuk. She has had multiple five rounders since then and came in under that number. I do not trust the volume to be there especially in a matchup where both fighters are moving around constantly on their bicycle which leads to less exchanges. Additionally, Amanda Ribas is chinny and this line is not giving much respect to the potential of a finish either.

Fernando Padilla UNDER 90.5 Fantasy Score – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 8-7 this year*

I am not even confident that Padilla wins this fight, let alone scores well. He is mainly a counter striker and facing someone that is going to constantly pressure him with volume. I think Pajeulo is very live for the upset but even if Padilla wins, I think this line is too high.

Karl Williams UNDER 33.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 8-7 this year*

One of our MMA Experts has a 2 Unit bet on this fight… See what the pick is.

Williams is an aggressive wrestler but he is typically not looking to do much damage as he is focused on controlling his opponents on the mat. His decision win on Contender Series he only landed 24 significant strikes. He went over this number in a decision against Lukasz Brzeski barely but this fight against Justin Tafa has much more of a chance to finish early.

PS. Our new betting package is now LIVE with an exclusive Odds screen that updates in real-time for live betting along with picks from some of the top MMA handicappers in the industry, Sign up for a FightNumbers subscription.