Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Macy Chiasson UNDER 54.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 4-5 this year*

Across her nine UFC fights, Chiasson has only gone over this number once in her career. She has gone the distance in four fights and came in under that mark in three of those. Simply put, she is not an active striker as she wants to barrel in and close distance and grind her opponents against the cage. She will not want to be fighting at distance against Pannie Kianzad and will look to take her down and grapple her. Lastly, she submitted Kianzad last time they fought so a finish is not out of the question either which adds more value to the under as well.

Josh Culibao UNDER 90.5 Fantasy Score – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 4-5 this year*

I am not even sure Culibao wins this fight let alone scores this highly. He is a low-volume striker and rarely looks to grapple so this line indicates a strong chance at a finish which I disagree with. Clearly a prove it spot to me against Danny Silva who I think will be very competitive.

Tai Tuivasa UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 4-5 this year*

Tuivasa is active in his fights but they generally do not last very long. This is because he has some serious power and if he connects clean early, I expect him to end this fight against Marcin Tybura. But the flip side of that is that Tybura could also land takedowns and outgrapple Tuivasa. If that’s the case, Tuivasa is going to spend a ton of time on his back and not landing strikes, along with potentially getting finished as well.

Gerald Meerschaert UNDER 33.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 7-7 this year*

Meerschaert needs to get this fight to the mat and I expect him to do that early and often as Bryan Barberena could not stuff a takedown from my daughter. If Meerschaert goes over this number then he is in trouble and likely not winning this fight.

Cory McKenna UNDER 45.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 4-4 this year*

McKenna is not a high-volume striker to begin with and has gone under this number in her last two fights. I expect her to be grappling a ton in this fight against Jaqueline Amorim who could potentially even finish her in the first round. If the fight gets extended, Amorim is likely pulling guard which means McKenna will be laying on top and most of those strikes will not be considered significant.

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