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Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Curtis Blaydes OVER Jailton Almeida Significant Strikes (Rivals) – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 4-2 this year*

This is honestly the strongest line I have seen this year on Underdog. Every second that this fight goes on, Blaydes has a significantly better chance to be up in significant strikes. He is a way better boxer and more active striker than Almeida, along with having the cardio advantage as well. I expect Blaydes to win this prop at high clip as the only way I see him losing is if he gets knocked out with one of the first strikes of the fight.

Kevin Holland OVER 64.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 8-8 this year*

Kevin Holland is a high volume striker and averages just under 4.5 significant strikes per minute which would put him slightly over this number. But what is not being factored in is that his metrics are muted because of a few matchups where fighters like Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson were able to lay on him for the majority of the fight so he didn’t have a chance to land volume. He will not have to worry about that with Michael Page and if this fight gets extended then he goes over that number at a high clip.

Pedro Munhoz +11.5 Significant Strikes vs Kyler Phillips (Rivals) – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 8-8 this year*

Munhoz averages slightly more significant strikes per minute than Phillips. He generally keeps a high pace with leg kicks constantly. It is possible that Phillips can take him down once or twice but Munhoz has solid takedown defense and may even have the cardio edge to come on strong late in the fight. This gap is too wide.

Kyler Phillips OVER 1.5 Takedowns – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 1-0 this year*

You can only play one prop for each fight but if you do not like the Munhoz side above, then simply taking Phillips to land two takedowns makes sense. He averages nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes. Munhoz has good takedown defense but Phillips is very explosive and uses that burst to enter his takedowns which may be harder to defend than traditional attempts.

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