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Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Michel Pereira UNDER 91.5 Fantasy Score – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 4-4 this year*

Michel Pereira has been more of a decision fighter as of late and not as aggressive as he used to be. Outside of an early finish, I expect this to be a lower paced fight where he mixes in some takedowns and controls Michal Oleksiejczuk on the mat. On the feet, he is at risk of getting knocked out himself so there are multiple ways we can get there on this prop.

Curtis Blaydes UNDER 9.75 Fight Time – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 6-6 this year*

I expect this fight to end early as both Blaydes and Jailton Almeida have significant finishing upside along with legitimate durability concerns. If either guy is having success the way they want to in this fight, it will not see a third round.

Kevin Holland OVER 62.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 6-6 this year*

Kevin Holland is a high volume striker and averages just under 4.5 significant strikes per minute which would put him slightly over this number. But what is not being factored in is that his metrics are muted because of a few matchups where fighters like Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson were able to lay on him for the majority of the fight so he didn’t have a chance to land volume. He will not have to worry about that with Michael Page and if this fight gets extended then he goes over that number at a high clip.

Robelis Despaigne UNDER 22.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 3-3 this year*

Robelis Despaigne has finished all of his professional fights by first-round knockout. He is going to have a massive speed and power advantage over Josh Parisian in this fight. It just comes down to if you think Parisian can hang around long in this fight and he doesn’t inspire confidence in me.

Mateusz Gamrot UNDER 45.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 3-3 this year*

Gamrot averages just under three significant strikes per minute which puts him slightly under this number if the fight goes the full 15 minutes. But he has only gone over this number twice in his UFC career and one of those was in a five round fight. He is not a great striker and I expect him to push a heavy grappling pace against Rafael Dos Anjos and could potentially even get a finish.

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