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Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Claudio Ribeiro UNDER 28.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 3-2 this year*

Ribeiro has explosive power and is facing someone in Duncan that is a capable knockout artist as well. Ribeiro also historically struggles with the gas tank so the volume is likely to fall off after the first round as well. I could see this one being lower paced with both guys respecting each other’s volume and if that’s the case I see this going under at a decent clip.

Alex Perez +3 Takedowns vs Muhammad Mokaev – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 6-8 this year*

Alex Perez is clearly the most skilled fighter that Mokaev has ever faced. He also has a collegiate wrestling background and averages nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes. I expect Mokaev to be able to land a few takedowns but I think Perez can land one or two of his own which makes it much more difficult for Mokaev to cover the three takedown spread.

Tyson Pedro +9.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 6-8 this year*

Historically speaking, Pedro averages roughly the same significant strikes per minute as Vitor Petrino. Additionally, both fighters have early knockout potential which makes it much harder for Petrino to cover the spread if the fight ends early. Lastly, I expect them to grapple a bit if the fight gets out of the first round which means less room for Petrino to land volume as well.

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