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Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Vinicius Oliveira UNDER 50.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 2-3 this year*

Oliveira is an explosive fighter with 15 of his 19 wins coming by knockout. He is going to try to get you out of there early in most of his fights. But he also has clear durability issues and struggles defensively. He is facing someone with real power themselves and he has been knocked out three times in his career. I am expecting this one to end early as either guy can win by knockout and this line is roughly seven strikes higher than what I would line it at.

Shamil Gaziev UNDER 28.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 2-3 this year*

This one is pretty straightforward as either guy can win by early knockout in the main event. Across 12 UFC fights for Jairzinho Rozenstruik, his opponents have only gone over this number three times and each of those lasted 15 minutes or longer. If Gaziev is landing this much volume early then I expect him to finish Rozenstruik. He is also likely to try to grapple more in this fight which leads to less significant strikes in general. Lastly, Rozenstruik has early knockout upside himself which has me seeing significant value in this under.

Eryk Anders UNDER 94.5 Fantasy Score – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 2-3 this year*

This line is simply off unless you think Anders finishes Jamie Pickett at a high clip on Saturday. Pickett is flimsy but he is not that easy to get out of there unless you are going to threaten with submission attempts which Anders does not do very often. This fight is (-120) to go the distance and if that happens then Anders goes way under this number.

Muhammad Mokaev UNDER 23.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 5-5 this year*

Mokaev averages just over one significant strike per 15 minutes. It is clear that he needs to grapple and does not want to be striking at range. He is also facing someone in Perez who wants to wrestle as well and has repeatedly put himself in bad spots in grappling exchanges. Mokaev goes under this number if he wins by submission early in the fight but even in a decision, this is probably close as he does not put a ton of volume out there.

Christian Leroy Duncan Fight Time OVER 6.5 Minutes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 5-5 this year*

I am betting the over 1.5 rounds in this fight which is priced at a pick’em across the industry so we are getting and additional minute of odds value with this line. Both guys have the power to hurt each other and Ribeiro has been wilting in the past but I also think they both will respect each other’s power and neither of them are high output fighters. Outside of an early knockout, this cruises over.

Javid Basharat UNDER 98.5 Fantasy Score – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 2-3 this year*

This is just a high number for a fight that is (-180) to go the distance. Even if you think Basharat lands 85 significant strikes and lands a few takedowns, he is still going under that number. Outside of a finish, He would really have to put out a lot more activity than I am expecting to go over that number.

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