Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Ricky Turcios +1.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 2-2 this year*

This line does not make sense to me as I would expect Turcios to be the favorite to land more significant strikes even in a loss. I picked Rosas Jr. to win by submission in my DraftKings write up but Rosas Jr. is not a high-volume striker by any stretch. Turcios is a volume machine and while the fight plays out on the feet, I expect him to be landing more than Rosas Jr. He should be up on the strike count by the time he gets submitted and if the fight gets extended longer than I thought, it likely means he is having more success on the feet as well.

Mateus Mendonca UNDER 30.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 2-2 this year*

Mendonca has never gone over this number in any of his three UFC fights. He fights with a style that leads to finishes more often than not. But even in fights that get extended, he only averages two significant strikes per minute. His cardio is not great and he will look to pull guard and look for submissions rather than outvolume someone on the feet. Lastly, this matchup with Jesus Aguilar, he may spend a lot of time on the mat and not at space.

Raul Rosas Jr. UNDER 13 Minutes Fight Time – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 5-6 this year*

Rosas Jr. is a relentless grappler and Ricky Turcios really struggles to defend takedowns. I expect there to be many grappling exchanges in this fight and do not trust the fight IQ of Turcios to stay safe in that scenario. I am expecting a Rosas Jr. submission victory and think it comes inside the first two rounds.

Yazmin Juaregui UNDER 79.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 5-6 this year*

Juaregui is a very powerful striker for this division and most of her wins have come by knockout. She has the type of power to put anyone’s lights out including Sam Hughes. But even if she does not get the finish, there are scenarios where Hughes grapples her not allowing her to throw a ton of volume and she is fighting at elevation this week so the cardio could be an issue as well.

Erik Silva +15.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 5-6 this year*

Erik Silva is not a high volume fighter by any stretch but he does have legitimate early finishing upside, even as a big underdog in this fight. Additionally, he is facing Muhammad Naimov who historically gets landed on more than he lands which is never great if trying to cover big numbers like this. I think the fight could finish early and doubt Naimov is up that big if it does but even if it gets extended, Silva can neutralize Naimov with his grappling.

Fares Ziam OVER 44.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 5-6 this year*

Ziam is historically a low volume striker but he has still gone over this number in three of his four fights that went to decision in the UFC. I expect him to be landing the jab at will against Puelles who struggles defensively and wants to get the fight to the mat. This is more of a bet on Ziam being able to keep it on the feet long enough to land volume and I think he will.

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