Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Mateus Mendonca UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 1-3 this year*

Mendonca has never gone over this number in any of his three UFC fights. He fights with a style that leads to finishes more often than not. But even in fights that get extended, he only averages two significant strikes per minute. His cardio is not great and he will look to pull guard and look for submissions rather than outvolume someone on the feet. Lastly, this matchup with Jesus Aguilar, he may spend a lot of time on the mat and not at space.

Fares Ziam OVER 44.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 4-3 this year*

Ziam is historically a low volume striker but he has still gone over this number in three of his four fights that went to decision in the UFC. I expect him to be landing the jab at will against Puelles who struggles defensively and wants to get the fight to the mat. This is more of a bet on Ziam being able to keep it on the feet long enough to land volume and I think he will.

Raoni Barcelos UNDER 87.5 Fantasy score – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 4-3 this year*

I have little faith in Barcelos at this stage in his career to even win the fight let alone score well. He keeps a decent pace on the feet but his durability is clearly declining having been dropped in multiple recent fights. Lastly, he is facing a powerful striker that should make things competitive on the feet as well.

Raul Rosas Jr. UNDER 12.5 Fight Time – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 4-3 this year*

Rosas Jr. is a relentless grappler and Ricky Turcios really struggles to defend takedowns. I expect there to be many grappling exchanges in this fight and do not trust the fight IQ of Turcios to stay safe in that scenario. I am expecting a Rosas Jr. submission victory and think it comes inside the first two rounds.

Daniel Zellhuber OVER 47.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 4-3 this year*

Zellhuber is a high volume striker and averages 5.26 significant strikes per minute. He has gone over this number in every fight that has gone the distance and this one is only slightly juiced to finish. Even if Zellhuber does find a finish, I expect it to come from a heavy volume pace before he finds the killshot.

Yasmin Juaregui UNDER 75.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 2-2 this year*

Juaregui is a very powerful striker for this division and most of her wins have come by knockout. She has the type of power to put anyone’s lights out including Sam Hughes. But even if she does not get the finish, there are scenarios where Hughes grapples her not allowing her to throw a ton of volume and she is fighting at elevation this week so the cardio could be an issue as well.

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