Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Oban Elliott UNDER 39.5 significant strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 2-1 this year*

Elliott is not a high volume striker on the feet. He is primarily a wrestler and wants to be hugging his opponents and peeling them to the ground as much as possible. He does not want to be at space because his striking defense is below average and he has been rocked multiple times in the past. He is facing a powerful striker in Val Woodburn and there are multiple ways we can get there on this prop – He can submit Woodburn, Woodburn can knock him out, Elliott can win a decision with tons of control time and grappling and still go under this total.

Mackenzie Dern +2.5 significant strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 4-4 this year*

Dern has really focused on improving her striking over the last couple years. While it is still not pretty, she has made it a point to be much more active on the feet. She is facing Amanda Lemos who is very powerful but not very active at all. Dern could always submit Lemos early or get knocked out early as well but I expect her to be the more active striker the longer the fight plays out.

Andrea Lee +3.5 significant strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 4-4 this year*

Lee averages 1.2 significant strikes per minute more than Miranda Maverick. I do not understand this line as Lee should be the clear favorite to land more strikes. She is the better striker and Maverick likely needs to have grappling success to win. It is not out yet but I would be willing to bet that sportsbooks that offer this prop have Lee as the favorite which is correct.

Ilia Topuria vs Alexander Volkanovski finish – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 4-4 this year*

This leg will push if the fight goes the distance like I expect it to. However, IF there is a finish I do think it more than likely comes from Topuria as he carries much more power. Volkanovski is coming off a knockout loss and is not really known as much of a finishing threat.

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