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Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Oban Elliott UNDER 39.5 significant strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 1-1 this year*

Elliott is not a high volume striker on the feet. He is primarily a wrestler and wants to be hugging his opponents and peeling them to the ground as much as possible. He does not want to be at space because his striking defense is below average and he has been rocked multiple times in the past. He is facing a powerful striker in Val Woodburn and there are multiple ways we can get there on this prop – He can submit Woodburn, Woodburn can knock him out, Elliott can win a decision with tons of control time and grappling and still go under this total.

Miranda Maverick UNDER 78.5 Fantasy Score – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 1-1 this year*

If you read my DraftKings article, then you know I picked Andrea Lee to pull off the upset. So not only do we get there if Lee beats Maverick, but Maverick could even win and not go over this total. Maverick is not a high output striker so unless you think she racks up five or more takedowns or finishes Lee (which I don’t) then I do not see how she goes over this number.

Merab Dvalishvili UNDER 92.5 Fantasy Score – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 4-2 this year*

It is always scary to fade someone that is known for being super active in fights. But this is a different matchup for him as he is facing Henry Cejudo so it is to be determined if he will be able to rack up eight or more takedowns like he has in the past. We have seen in other stylistic matchups like the Jose Aldo fight, Dvalishvili was content to outpoint him on the feet. I think this line is baking in too much wrestling success for Dvalishvili this week.

Ian Garry UNDER 93.5 Fantasy Score – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 1-2 this year*

Ian Garry is a high volume striker but he would need to put up a huge amount of strikes to go over this number assuming the fight goes the distance. I am not expecting a finish and think this line is 5-6 points too high.

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