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Early on in my military career, I worked for a Commander who was very process oriented. Whenever I had to answer to a problem or issue, it was never good enough to simply give him the answer. You needed to give the background and explanation for why the issue arose and the detailed steps on how the solution will prevent it from happening again.

While this was a tedious process because I was constantly solving problems, it was helpful to be able to explain the reasons why rather than just giving a short answer each time. However, after being programmed to think that way for years, I worked for a very different boss at my next assignment who was the polar opposite. He did not care about the what, why or how, just wanted to know the ‘TLDR’ and whether or not it was fixed.

It did not take me long to figure out that was his working style and he didn’t want to get in the weeds on how I fixed the issue – just that it was fixed. You see, adaptation is a great skill-set to have not just in working situations but in life in general. You ever meet people that are so plan-oriented with literally everything? If you were planning to go to restaurant A with a group of people and change to restaurant B on the fly and the hardcore planners just cannot handle it. You need to be able to adapt in so many situations and that goes for DFS as well.

Each slate is a different puzzle and they are not always going to present the same leverage opportunities. It’s important to be able to adapt and see each specific slate for what it is to be able to interpret it more effectively.

Zac Pauga vs Bogdan Guskov

I picked Guskov to win by knockout and plan on targeting him this week. But I would be lying if I told you that he was the leverage side in this fight. I actually expect him to be higher owned than Zac Pauga despite being the betting underdog. Pauga has not been exciting in the past but it is still possible that his ground game and experience can pay off, particularly if Guskov gets tired quickly. Keep an eye on ownership updates leading up to Saturday but I have some interest in getting over the field on Pauga if this ownership holds true.

Daniel Marcos vs Aori Qileng

I talked about why Marcos is generally a fade for me on the DraftKings Deep Dive show this week. Many times, if you already plan to be underweight to one side of a fight, it makes sense to be overweight to their matchup if you expect the fight to score reasonably well relative to their price point. Aori Qileng fits that mold this week for me because I expect the fight to play out closer than the betting odds suggest, and he is one of the cheapest fighters on the slate. If you are already planning to fade Marcos up top, it makes sense to be over the field on Qileng this week.

Joe Pyfer vs Jack Hermansson

The main event projects to be popular this week which is completely warranted. However, when we are looking for leverage, it does not always mean low-owned leverage. We have seen multiple slates recently where even a popular fighter can become a leverage play if the other side is popular as well. As much as I love Joe Pyfer, there are multiple reasons to believe that Hermansson is a live underdog in this fight. Hermansson clearly has more experience and is a dangerous fighter in his own right. Any Hermansson victory is likely an optimal performance which is enticing if he is going to be 15-20% less owned than Pyfer.

If you are a regular reader of these leverage articles, you know that they usually consist of lower-owned underdogs. But this week is different. Adaptation is key and this slate warrants the ability to approach it in a unique way.

Best of luck and I’ll see you in the streets!

-Jon