Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Jack Hermansson +4.5 Significant Strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 1-1 this year*

This line makes zero sense to me. I understand Joe Pyfer is the favorite but Hermansson is a high-output fighter and averages nearly two more significant strikes per minute than Pyfer who is historically lower volume. Hermansson has only been outlanded four times in the UFC across 16 fights and those came against much more active fighters. Even if Pyfer wins by knockout, i could see Hermansson still having more significant strikes up to that point.

Max Griffin +2.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 3-2 this year*

Griffin generally keeps a solid pace on the feet and he averages 1.5 significant strikes more per minute than his opponent, Jeremiah Wells. Wells is super explosive but very low output on the feet and typically likes to grapple (not land strikes). I consider Griffin to be the favorite to land more significant strikes in this fight, even if he gets knocked out or submitted.

Bruna Brasil +2 takedowns – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 3-2 this year*

I do not rate Bruna Brasil very highly but she does mix in the takedowns in nearly every fight. She has shot at least one takedown in every UFC fight and multiple times on the regional scene. I expect Lookboonmee to land some takedowns against her but even if Brasil lands just one, Lookboonmee would need four takedowns to beat this prop because of the push equity you get with the + two takedowns.

Devin Clark OVER 2.5 Takedowns – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 3-2 this year*

Clark comes from a collegiate wrestling background and averages 2.35 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is facing Marcin Prachnio who only defends takedowns at 54% in the UFC. Prachnio has been taken down four times in both of his UFC losses that reached the third round. Clark just needs one takedown per round assuming this fight does not end early.

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