Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Daniel Marcos UNDER 90.5 Fantasy Score – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 1-1 this year*

As you guys know, I like targeting the props that have multiple ways to get there. This is a good example of that this week because Marcos not only needs to win, but crush Aori Qileng and I am not confident in that outcome. I expect this fight to be pretty competitive, and while Marcos getting a finish is possible, I think the market is overrating it and he can go under this fantasy points number at a pretty high clip.

Jeremiah Wells UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 3-1 this year*

Wells only lands 2.52 significant strikes per minute. He is low output on the feet and very explosive which adds to the finishing equity in many of his fights. He has also been rocked himself and has a strong ground game. There are multiple ways this prop goes under, even outside of an early finish.

Devin Clark OVER 2.5 Takedowns – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 3-1 this year*

Clark comes from a collegiate wrestling background and averages 2.35 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is facing Marcin Prachnio who only defends takedowns at 54% in the UFC. Prachnio has been taken down four times in both of his UFC losses that reached the third round. Clark just needs one takedown per round assuming this fight does not end early.

Hyder Amil UNDER 54.5 Significant Strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 1-1 this year*

Amil pushes a heavy pace in his fights but it is usually involving a lot of clinch work and grappling, not necessarily duking it out on the feet. He also just turns all of his fights into dirty wars where both fighters end up gassed due to the pace. If that’s the case, a lot of those strikes will not be counted as significant and this is a pretty line if you are assuming he grapples at all in this fight.

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