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“The one who follows the crowd will usually go no further than the crowd.” – Albert Einstein

Let’s say you are stuck in traffic. It is bumper to bumper for as far as you can see and you are going to be late for work. You are only three miles from work but there is another back road (no traffic) that could get you to work but is an additional 12 miles to the length of your trip. Do you stay on the current route or merge off and take the back road?

Now, you may have decided to stay in traffic and hope it clears up since you are so close to work rather than adding 12 miles which is understandable. However, what if your boss calls and said you will get $100,000 bonus if you make it to work in the next 15 minutes?

Does your decision change? Probably. Because with the added incentive, you now realize that following the crowd of traffic does nothing for you except keep a very small possibility that you (and the rest of the cars) will make it to work in time for the $100,000 bonus.

But if you decide to leave the crowd and take the open back road, you now have the potential to get to work ahead of the crowd despite taking the longer route. Because so few people decided to take that route, you were able to make it to work ahead of the crowd of traffic simply by taking a different approach that gave you more of a path to getting the bonus.

This analogy is a lot like DFS. By taking a lesser used approach, you may not always beat the crowd, but the few times that you do, the reward is exponential. Leverage is the name of the game – that is how you beat the crowd of traffic and there are multiple spots on this card that present that opportunity.

Themba Gorimbo vs Pete Rodriguez

I expect Gorimbo to be one of the most popular fighters on the slate. But that is more of a product of this slate as there are no clear spend up options – it is not because Gorimbo is a stud by any stretch. In fact, Gorimbo was club and subbed by AJ Fletcher who is a lower-level fighter in the division. But because Gorimbo dominated Takashi Sato who has no semblance of a ground game, I think the field will have a degree of false confidence in him. His opponent, Pete Rodriguez is going to have a clear striking advantage over Gorimbo to go along with a power advantage as well. Gorimbo will need to get this fight to the ground but if he cannot do that early then he is at a legitimate risk to get knocked out.

Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober

Moicano saw some heavy line movement in his favor and is currently projected to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. While I picked Moicano to win, I think this fight could go either way considering Dober has big knockout upside. Dober will still be semi-popular, but this is similar to the Malcolm Gordon vs Jimmy Flick fight from a couple weeks ago as Dober could end up being half the ownership of Moicano. If that’s the case, I’ll be much higher on Dober in a fight that is basically a coin flip considering you will get 2/1 odds.

Nassourdine Imavov vs Roman Dolidze

The main event this week is enticing but it is not necessary for this slate. For starters, we have 13 fights on this slate which gives us more possible outcomes of how this slate plays out. Additionally, Imavov can win a fight with a later finish or decision and still get outscored by multiple fighters in his price range. I will still have some decent exposure to the main event but coming in under the field across your MME sets makes sense to me. It is much harder to fade the main event if you think Dolidze wins because his price gives him a much stronger chance to hit the optimal in a victory than Imavov.

Every slate is different and some slates present stronger leverage point than others. But by attacking those leverage points each slate, you are giving yourself a much stronger chance to beat the field. It’s not going to work every slate but when it works, you are getting paid off in a big way.

I’ll be taking the back road this week but enjoy sitting in traffic if you want to, I’ll see you in the streets!

– Jon