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Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Luana Carolina +3.5 significant strikes – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 0-1 this year*

Carolina should be the favorite to land more significant strikes and I expect that to be the case on sportsbooks that have these props available. She typically keeps a high pace on the feet for the division and Julija Stoliarenko has only outlanded one opponent across seven UFC bouts. This is my favorite prop on Underdog this week.

Blake Bilder vs Jeong-Yeong Lee UNDER 12.5 minutes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 2-1 this year*

This is one where I disagree with the market as the under 2.5 rounds is priced at a pick’em nearly everywhere. I see a finish happening much more often as Lee swings like a wild man on the feet and Bilder is historically chinny. If the fight were to hit the mat, Bilder should have a clear submission grappling advantage as well. I do not expect this one to see the judges’ scorecards.

Renato Moicano UNDER 33.5 significant strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 2-1 this year*

Moicano is facing Drew Dober this week and much like any Dober fight, I expect this one to be a car crash early. Dober has huge power and Moicano has been knocked out three times in his career. On the flip side, Dober’s durability is not what it used to be and his defensive grappling has always been an issue throughout his career. This one ends early making it more difficult for Moicano to go over this prop line especially if the gameplan is too grapple from the jump.

Thomas Petersen UNDER 2.5 takedowns – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 0-0 this year*

Thomas Petersen definitely wants to get the fight to the ground, but Pogues is one of his toughest tests to date and Pogues does have some wrestling in his background. Additionally, when Petersen does get the fight to the ground, he wastes no time landing some big ground and pound which usually ends the fight. This line is also set at 2.0 over at PrizePicks so you’re getting the best of the line here.

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