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Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Marquel Mederos UNDER 93.5 Fantasy Score – 5 stars
*5 star plays are 0-1 this year*

This fantasy score prop does not factor in the heavy line movement against Mederos this week as he is now only a (-130) favorite on sharper books suggesting the market is not even that confident he wins this week. I picked him to win the fight but by decision and he likely needs an early finish to go over this price tag. Not only would he need to win but he would also need to be pretty dominant to go over this prop and I’m much less confident in that outcome.

Blake Bilder vs Jeong-Yeong Lee UNDER 12.5 minutes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 2-0 this year*

This is one where I disagree with the market as the under 2.5 rounds is priced at a pick’em nearly everywhere. I see a finish happening much more often as Lee swings like a wild man on the feet and Bilder is historically chinny. If the fight were to hit the mat, Bilder should have a clear submission grappling advantage as well. I do not expect this one to see the judges’ scorecards.

Renato Moicano UNDER 33.5 significant strikes – 4 stars
*4 star plays are 2-0 this year*

Moicano is facing Drew Dober this week and much like any Dober fight, I expect this one to be a car crash early. Dober has huge power and Moicano has been knocked out three times in his career. On the flip side, Dober’s durability is not what it used to be and his defensive grappling has always been an issue throughout his career. This one ends early making it more difficult for Moicano to go over this prop line especially if the gameplan is too grapple from the jump.

Thomas Petersen UNDER 46.5 significant strikes – 3 stars
*3 star plays are 1-0 this year*

I think this line is giving too much respect to Jamal Pogues fights going longer historically. But from a stylistic perspective, Petersen typically tries to get his opponents to the ground so he can land his heavy ground and pound. If Petersen comes close to covering his moneyline price tag this week then it likely means he is having success in dominant positions on the mat. In that scenario, I think he finds an early finish and this prop is relatively high for low-level Heavyweights that want to fight on the mat.

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