Each week, I try to identify the available options on Underdog Fantasy for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

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Mike Malott UNDER 32.5 significant strikes – 5 stars

Mike Malott has never gone over this total in the UFC. He has also only fought out of the first round just twice in his entire career. He is a dangerous finisher and typically gets his work done early in the fights. He is facing someone in Neil Magny who is notorious for getting submitted and Malott has some nasty submissions in his arsenal. I would be surprised to see this one go over the 1.5 round mark and think Malott goes under this number at a high clip.

Marc-Andre Barriault +7.5 significant strikes – 4 stars

Historically, Chris Curtis gets landed on more than he lands in terms of significant strikes. He is mainly a powerful counter striker which usually leads to more knockout opportunity but less of him out-voluming his opponents. Barriault lands more per minute and has good cardio so he will keep a pace if the fight gets extended like I expect. It’s possible Barriault just lands more significant strikes straight up than Curtis so getting the extra 7.5 makes a lot of sense to me

Serhiy Sidey vs Ramon Taveras Over 7.5 minutes – 4 stars

I know this fight ended in round one the first time they fought on Dana White’s Contender Series but that was an early stoppage. Outside of Taveras getting chinned again I do think this fight gets in the later half of round two at a higher clip.

Movsar Evloev OVER 3.5 Takedowns – 4 stars

Movsar Evloev has gone over this total in all but two of his UFC fights and those were against good wrestlers like Nik Lentz and Mike Grundy. He averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes and this fight is favored to go the distance. More importantly, when Evloev is facing fighters that are a legitimate striking threat, he relies more heavily on the repeated takedowns as he is not great at controlling fighters on the mat. Against Hakeem Dawodu and Dan Ige, we saw this materialize and he landed nine takedowns in each of those fights. I could see that being the case here with Allen being a legitimate striking threat and Evloev forcing repeated takedowns. If he does not go over this number then he likely loses this fight.

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