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Each week, I try to identify the available options on PrizePicks for UFC that have the most value. I will give my analysis of each play, along with a star rating (3 stars = slight value, 4 stars = good value, 5 stars = great value).

Mike Malott UNDER 32.5 significant strikes – 5 stars

Mike Malott has never gone over this total in the UFC. He has also only fought out of the first round just twice in his entire career. He is a dangerous finisher and typically gets his work done early in the fights. He is facing someone in Neil Magny who is notorious for getting submitted and Malott has some nasty submissions in his arsenal. I would be surprised to see this one go over the 1.5 round mark and think Malott goes under this number at a high clip.

Serhiy Sidey UNDER 92.5 Fantasy Points – 4 stars

I think this one is just laziness by PrizePicks because they are setting the line based on what happened when these two fought on Contender Series and Sidey won by first-round knockout. But that was a terrible stoppage and it was Taveras that was having more success prior to the knockdown. It’s possible that Sidey can hurt him again but he basically needs a first-round finish to go over this fantasy point total. I am not convinced he even wins this fight, let alone finishes in the first round again. We also have outs where he can win a decision and still not go over this number.

Movsar Evloev OVER 3.5 Takedowns – 4 stars

Movsar Evloev has gone over this total in all but two of his UFC fights and those were against good wrestlers like Nik Lentz and Mike Grundy. He averages nearly five takedowns per 15 minutes and this fight is favored to go the distance. More importantly, when Evloev is facing fighters that are a legitimate striking threat, he relies more heavily on the repeated takedowns as he is not great at controlling fighters on the mat. Against Hakeem Dawodu and Dan Ige, we saw this materialize and he landed nine takedowns in each of those fights. I could see that being the case here with Allen being a legitimate striking threat and Evloev forcing repeated takedowns. If he does not go over this number then he likely loses this fight.

Chris Curtis UNDER 93.5 Fantasy Points – 3 stars

Chris Curtis basically needs to win by knockout to go over this number. While that is certainly possible, I could also see scenarios where he wins a decision and comes in under this number. It’s also within the range of outcomes that he loses this fight to Marc-Andre Barriault in front of the Canadian crowd.

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