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I think it was Albert Einstein that said the definition of insanity is “Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” You’re probably similar to me in that you think anyone doing the same thing over and over again but expecting a different result is dumb. But you would be surprised at how often we see people do this in everyday life without even noticing it.

People complain about being overweight but do not change their diet or exercise. Other people complain about the traffic on their daily commute but never try another route or leaving at a different time. But it’s not just other people that do this, I am guilty as well and unfortunately, my dog paid the price recently.

Before I get into this, I want to preface it by saying that my dog is my absolute best friend. We are inseparable (literally) and he lives like a king 99.9% of the time. But when I take him on a walk we always go the same route and he constantly walks through this bush and gets burrs stuck in his fur. He is a golden-doodle so he usually has a lot of fur and these burrs are like heavy duty Velcro.

Usually, I am able to divert him away quickly from this bush to where only a few burrs stick to him and I can pull them out. There was one time where I had to cut a chunk of them out of his back hair but nothing crazy. But just the other day, he managed to get into the bush really bad after chasing a squirrel and it was a nightmare. No, it was bad…

Obviously, I was frustrated. I felt bad for my buddy but also annoyed that he would go into the bush like that again. But you see it was entirely my fault. Because I was going the same way each walk and expecting a different result when I know that he loves to brush up against that bush every time.

Now wouldn’t it make sense for me not to go near that bush on my next walk?

When we think about that concept and try to relate to this DFS slate, its pretty straightforward to me. Are you doing the same things over and over again and expecting a different result? Maybe you are constantly playing the chalk and not winning. Or following your favorite tout and not seeing it pay off for you. If it’s not working then stop doing it. You cannot do what everyone else does and expect to win long-term.

Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker

No surprise here if you listened to any of my content this week. Main events are always heavily owned on DraftKings and I think this matchup provides a unique opportunity to come in well underweight to the field – specifically on Ankalaev. He does not push a pace and even in a first-round victory, he may not do enough to be optimal. He is also going to be one of the most popular fighters to target so you are getting great leverage by fading him.

Tom Nolan vs Nikolas Motta

I really like Tom Nolan and think he has a future in the UFC. I also expect him to knockout Motta here. But I still recognize the upside of Motta if he were to pull off the upset victory. Nolan is going to be one of the more popular spend up options and I will have heavy exposure to him. But I think it is smart to be overweight to Motta as most of the field will not and his win condition is an early KO which would make him optimal in most circumstances.

Jean Silva vs Westin Wilson

This one feels bad. But clicking Westin Wilson when you know the field is not going to presents a big leverage opportunity. I expect him to get killed but so does everyone else and they will build their lineups with that same thought process. Do you want to follow the field or try to get paid off in a big way in the small percentage of time when the field is wrong about this?

I do want to note that my dog Tucker is completely fine. We were able to cut out the burrs at no harm to him and trimmed him up as well. Happy to report that we have not gone near the burr bush since the last incident. Time to shake things up and do things differently because otherwise, well that would be insanity.

I’ll see you in the streets.