A strategy that I always try to use with PrizePicks is choosing plays that have multiple ways to win. That is what we are doing with the Ankalaev under here. I do think the fight time goes over 1.5 rounds but by targeting the under fantasy points, we won’t lose if Walker pulls off a KO upset early which is likely his best win condition. Also, Ankalaev is not a huge finishing threat and does not push a pace so he likely needs a finish in the first two rounds to pay off this fantasy score. Prove it spot.

As for Basharat, I do expect him to try to grapple here but Taylor Lapilus has strong takedown defense and I could see a lot of stalling up against the cage. Basharat is also a capable striker so he could stop trying for takedowns if they are difficult and it is making him tired. We also have a little push equity with the 3 and I would be surprised to see him go over that mark unless it was something fluky like Lapilus popping up and getting mat returned instantly and UFC stats crediting those as takedowns.