One of my good buddies told me that when his wife was about to go into labor, he suddenly had to take a giant dump. Apparently, this is a common thing based on some of the guys I talked to but I did not think much of it at the time. Then in March of 2021, I found myself sitting next to my wife’s hospital bed as she is going through the preparation of giving birth and all I could think about is not trying to poop my pants.

No, seriously. It was a wave of bowel movements like I had never felt before. Maybe it was the nerves of me about to become a father for the first time, but it was unexplainable. To make matters worse, we are in one of those small surgery prep rooms with a small bathroom right next to the bed. In the midst of my wife getting poked with IV needles and what not, I have to ask her what I should do in this scenario.

I waited until the nurse left and I’m like “Alright, I am about to shit my pants right now. Could I leave and go find a bathroom?” Her response, “Are you joking? Just go right here.” To which I responded, “I don’t think you want that to happen.” But alas, she insisted, and I obliged.

I waited for another opportunity when the nurses all left and figured this was my only opportunity as my wife would be going into the operating room shortly. I closed the door and let it rip. But naturally as luck would have it, the nurses all stormed back in the room like they had planned it and were all waiting for me to start unloading. They were standing right outside the door while it sounded like a full-blown trumpet was coming out of my intestines.

It was a complete disaster. At this point, my only move was to just own it. I opened the door and walked out like everything was completely normal despite the entire room smelling like the public bathrooms outside of the Salt River in Arizona. It goes without saying but the nurses suddenly were done with whatever they were doing and left us in peace. It goes without saying, but maybe the right move would have been for me to clench up and accept the risk of potentially pooping my pants instead.

Which brings us to this weekend. Most people would classify this as “a shitty card” and while that may be correct, we do still have an opportunity to make some money. It is a smaller slate with only 11 fights so leverage will be harder to come by with less fighters to choose from so it makes sense to up your risk tolerance in some of these matchups.

Zac Pauga vs Jordan Wright

This is one of the fights with the highest probability end in a finish which means it will likely garner some bigger ownership as well. While I expect Pauga to be one of the most popular fighters on the slate with the strongest inside distance line, I do not expect Wright to be the most popular underdog.

At this point, we all know what to expect from Wright as he tries to take his opponents out early and if that doesn’t happen then he wilts and crumbles inside the first two rounds. But on this slate, it makes sense to be on the opposite side of Pauga who is likely the most owned fighter. Additionally, Wright has a narrow path to victory in that IF he pulls off the upset then he certainly crushes on DraftKings because it likely came in the first round. Wright is never an easy click but for this slate I will be clenching my cheeks and clicking him heavily.

Alexander Hernandez vs Jim Miller

This will be another popular fight to target. However, I expect Hernandez to be much more owned on DraftKings. It’s obvious as to why as he is the younger fighter with a solid skillset and this seems like a favorable matchup for him. But I wouldn’t be so confident clicking him this weekend.

Hernandez is historically untrustworthy and has rarely proven to have a big ceiling on DraftKings. On the flip side, Jim Miller is another underdog that almost certainly crushes if he pulls off the upset. Additionally, he gives you added leverage against one of the more popular fighters on the slate in Hernandez. Not many people will trust the 40-year-old with Lyme disease and cardio issues this weekend, but I’m willing to plug my nose and be overweight to him given the leverage it provides on this slate.

William Knight vs Marcin Prachnio

This is going to be a key decision point this weekend as both fighters are priced smack dab in the mid-range on DraftKings. I will run ownership projections later today but as of now I would expect Knight to garner significant ownership while Prachnio is just meh.

Knight has obvious knockout power and wrestling upside which is great and I will certainly have some exposure to him across my teams as well. But in the main tournament on DraftKings, I want to get significant action on Prachnio if Knight is going to be popular. Knight is historically untrustworthy and has looked terrible over his last couple fights. Puckering up and fading the early power with Prachnio who has a clear path to victory with surviving early and taking over late makes a ton of sense this weekend.

So in summary, this card does stink and so did my hospital bathroom. But if we make a conscious decision to embrace the risk and to clench up this weekend, then we can hopefully have a better outcome than I did two years ago. Good luck fellas, I’ll see you in the streets.