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We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 283 in Brazil! We have an action-packed 15-fight slate on DraftKings and a very solid PPV lineup to kick of 2023. It also helps that on DraftKings we have another $100,000 to first place in the main contest.

As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter  with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.

Saimon Oliveira vs Daniel Marcos
Oliveira, -195; Marcos, +165

Saimon Oliveira is coming off a decision loss to Tony Gravely in his UFC debut in January of last year. He is a former Dana White’s Contender Series winner and primarily a grappler. He does have some power on the feet with some heavy leg kicks, but his best weapon is his guillotine choke. 11 of his 18 career wins have come by submission and he should have the grappling edge in this fight.

His opponent, Daniel Marcos is making his UFC debut off this past season of Dana White’s Contender Series. Marcos was coming off a long layoff for that fight but gave a good account of himself and beat a respected regional opponent in Brandon Lewis. He is primarily a striker with seven of his 13 career wins coming by knockout. He has some strong leg kicks and will throw flying knees and other unorthodox attacks.

Both fighters have power on the feet, but Oliveira has a clear grappling edge with his submission skills. However, his wrestling is nothing special and Marcos stuffed 11 of 13 takedowns in his last fight and worked back to his feet well. I also expect Marcos to have the cardio edge and expect him to pull away if the fight goes late. In terms of Draftkings, I will have exposure to both sides as I am expecting a finish but will have more of the underdog in Marcos. Marcos by TKO is the official pick.

Cody Stamann vs Luan Lacerda
Stamann, -340; Lacerda, +280

Cody Stamann is coming off a first-round knockout victory over Eddie Wineland in June. He comes from a wrestling background and averages 2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. Aside from his wrestling skills, he has great cardio and solid boxing skills as well and can put a pace on his opponents. Prior to his last fight, he was on a three-fight losing streak but that was against some of the top competition in the division and this is a significant step down against an unproven debutant.

His opponent, Luan Lacerda is making his UFC debut in this one. He is a 30-year-old Brazilian prospect with a 12-1 professional record and 10 of his 12 career wins have come by submission. He is primarily a grappler and holds a black belt in BJJ. He shows good timing on his takedowns but he is not a great wrestler and will be at a disadvantage in that department against Stamann. On the feet, he does not present many problems as his striking is nothing special and he is not a great minute winner due to his fighting style.

I expect Stamann to have an advantage in the striking and to be pumping his jab and maintaining distance. I also expect Stamann to be able to stay safe if they end up grappling but expect him to win this on the feet as that is the easiest path to victory for him. Stamann by decision is the official pick.

Josiane Nunes vs Zarah Fairn
Nunes, -475; Fairn, +380

Josiane Nunes is coming off a decision win over Ramona Pascual last February. She is 9-1 professionally and currently on an eight-fight win streak. Her only loss is to current UFC fighter Taila Santos. She is a southpaw boxer that is always looking to finish the fight and seven of her nine wins have come by knockout. She is aggressive and powerful early but can be taken down and controlled and does have some cardio concerns as well.

Her opponent, Zarah Fairn is coming off nearly a two-year layoff after being stopped in the first round by Felicia Spencer in February of 2020. She is primarily a striker and very big for the division and likes to come out fast. She is also going to be massively bigger than Nunes as she is six inches taller and will hold a five-inch reach advantage as well. Her biggest issue is that she is maybe the worst grappler on the UFC roster. When she gets taken down she has zero clue how to work back to her feet or defend herself on the ground and she has paid the price for it thus far in the UFC.

This is a low-level fight, but I think it could turn into a nonstop back-and-forth striking match, which makes it kind of fun. Nunes has much more punching power but Fairn has some power as well and I expect both fighters to land early and often. Nunes by TKO is the official pick but I will have some exposure to both sides on DraftKings and I expect Fairn to put up a decent fight in this one.

Warrley Alves vs Nicolas Dalby
Alves, -125; Dalby, +105

Warrley Alves is coming off a second-round TKO loss to my guy, Jeremiah Wells in June of 2021. Alves is a well-rounded fighter with power on the feet and he averages just under 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. He is a tough fighter to project because he is live to win in almost any matchup but also possible to blow it as a favorite. His durability is not great as he has been knocked out twice and now coming off a decent layoff.

His opponent, Nicolas Dalby is coming off a decision victory over Claudio Silva in July. I have never been a Dalby believer as he is historically not a great round winner. He is low volume on the feet and rarely looks to proactively grapple despite having a decent ground game. His last two decision victories seemed like robberies to me as well as he just never puts a stamp on rounds.

It is tough to trust either of these fighters, but I see most of the upside being on the Alves side. He has much more finishing ability and is more likely to have the bigger moments that could swing some of the close rounds. Alves by TKO is the official pick.

Terrance McKinney vs Ismael Bonfim
McKinney, -125; Bonfim, +105

We last saw Terrance McKinney when he faced Drew Dober in what was a back and forth war for as long as it lasted. In typical McKinney fashion, he comes out hot and heavy right from the opening bell and tries to get the finish. As always, if the finish does not materialize in the first few minutes then he tends to gas out and fade hard. That is who he is as a fighter and he will always be a boom or bust DraftKings play.

His opponent, Ismael Bonfim is making his UFC debut off Dana White’s Contender Series last season. Bonfim is the older brother of Gabriel Bonfim who is also fighting on this card. Unfortunately for him, Gabriel is the more talented brother. He has some sharp boxing and good cardio, but his weakness has always been his defensive grappling. He showed improved takedown defense on Contender Series but I would be surprised if he can stop the pressure attack from McKinney.

Bonfim will have a clear cardio edge but that is only if he is able to survive the first few minutes of McKinney’s attack. I will have some exposure to both sides on DraftKings with a moderate lean to McKinney as I expect him to land a takedown early and find the finish. McKinney by submission is the official pick.

Gabriel Bonfim vs Mounir Lazzez
Bonfim, -190; Lazzez, +160

Gabriel Bonfim is the younger brother of Ismael Bonfim and also won a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series this past season. He is the former LFA Welterweight champion and an intriguing prospect for this division. He has some powerful striking with three knockouts on his record but it is clear that he is more dangerous with his grappling. 10 of his 13 wins have come by submission and he seems to have a well-rounded skillset with an aggressive finishing style.

His opponent, Mounir Lazzez is coming off a decision victory over Ange Loosa in April. Lazzez is primarily a striker and comes from a kickboxing background. He has power in his hands with eight of his 11 career wins coming by knockout. He is high volume on the feet and has solid cardio as well which could play a factor in this fight.

I expect both fighters to have success on the feet but definitely expect Lazzez to be winning the striking. He throws more volume on the feet and will be working with a four-inch reach advantage. He is also much better defensively as Bonfim leaves himself wide open for counter punches. Bonfim would be wise to get this fight to the mat where he should have an advantage, but I do not trust him to do so and Lazzez has been decent at working back to his feet in the past. Lazzez by TKO is the official pick and he is a great underdog pick on DraftKings.

Thiago Moises vs Melquizael Costa
Moises, -300; Costa, +250

Thiago Moises is coming off a first-round submission loss to Christos Giagos in June. He trains out of American Top Team and is primarily a grappler with seven submission victories and holds a black belt in BJJ. His striking is still not great but has improved since he first entered the UFC years ago. The problem with Moises is that he is another fighter that does not put a stamp on rounds and is very average wherever the fight goes outside of his submission skills.

His opponent, Melquizael Costa is making his UFC debut on short notice as he replaced Guram Kutateladze who pulled out of this matchup. Costa previously fought in LFA and is a 19-5 prospect fighting out of Brazil. He is primarily a striker and fights out of the southpaw stance with 13 of his 19 wins have coming inside the distance.

I expect Costa to put up a fight and make this closer than the betting odds indicate. However, it is still a tough draw for him in his UFC debut on short notice against an experienced veteran in Moises. I think Costa could have some moments on the feet but ultimately expect Moises to push him up against the cage and wear on him before eventually using his grappling edge. Moises by submission is the official pick.

Jailton Almeida vs Shamil Abdurakhimov
Almeida, -900; Abdurakhimov, +625

Jailton Almeida has looked flawless through his firs three UFC bouts with all three being first-round finishes. He is one of the brightest prospects to come off Dana White’s Contender Series over the last few years and seems to have a very promising future. He is an explosive athlete with clear power on the feet but an even more dangerous ground game and holds a black belt in BJJ.

His opponent, Shamil Abdurakhimov is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Sergei Pavlovich in March of last year. He turns 42 later this year and is currently on a three-fight losing streak being knocked out in all three fights. At this stage in his career, he is toasted and has been knocked out five times in his career.

This is certainly not a hot take, but I expect Almeida to roll through Abdurakhimov in this one. It is just a matter of whether or not you think he knocks him out or submits him. Your guess is as good as mine, but the finish is coming. Almeida by knockout is the official pick and he is one of the strongest plays on DraftKings.

Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira
Rodrigues, -330; Ferreira, +275

Gregory Rodrigues has never been in a boring fight. He is action packed from the jump and has a very well-rounded skillset. Despite being knocked out twice in his career, he has also proven he can go to war and take a mean punch without giving up. This was never more clear than his last fight against Chidi Njokuani when he went through some early adversity and came back with an impressive TKO stoppage win. He has a decent ground game along with a black belt in BJJ but rarely goes to it because the guy just loves to bang.

His opponent, Brunno Ferreira is coming off this past season of Dana White’s Contender Series. He is an undefeated prospect fighting out of Brazil. Of his nine career victories, six of them have come by knockout. He is going to be much smaller than Rodrigues and will be at a three-inch reach disadvantage as well. Aside from his power on the feet, he typically likes to go to his power style wrestling and take his opponents down and get off some heavy ground and pound. Lastly, he has only reached the second round twice in his career and has never seen the final round so naturally the cardio will likely favor Rodrigues.

Ferreira’s aggressive nature will add some variance in most of his fights and Rodrigues is a willing dance partner. But this is a sizable step up in terms of competition and Rodrigues is more skilled wherever the fight goes. Ferreira is early knockout or bust and I just do not see that happening. Rodrigues by TKO is the official pick.

Ihor Potieria vs Mauricio Rua
Potieria, -200; Rua, +170

Ihor Potieria is coming off a second-round TKO loss at UFC 277 at the hands of Nicolae Negumereanu. He seemed to gas out within the first few minutes of the fight and was a walking corpse by the second round which was obviously not a great look. That loss snapped a 15-fight winning streak for him although the level of competition on the regional scene was relatively low. He is primarily a striker and fights out of the southpaw stance with 14 of his 18 career wins coming inside the distance. Aside from the cardio concerns, I do not trust his defensive grappling either.

His opponent, Mauricio Rua is coming off a split-decision loss to Ovince Saint Preux at UFC 274 in May. Rua is a legend of the fight game but I am honestly not sure why he is still fighting. He is 41 years old and currently on a two-fight losing skid. He has been knocked out six times in his career and just seems to move in slow motion at this stage in his career. He should have a grappling edge if he can get the fight to the ground and he averages just over two takedowns per 15 minutes.

Rua being able to land a takedown and have success grappling would not surprise me. But if Potieria is even remotely UFC level then he should run through Rua while the fight plays out on the feet. The official pick is Potieria by TKO but I have very little trust in this man so will likely avoid this fight in most of my lineups.

Johnny Walker vs Paul Craig
Walker, -190; Craig, +160

Johnny Walker is coming off a first-round submission at UFC 279 in September. That win snapped a two-fight losing skid and he will look to get back in the win column this weekend. Walker is an explosive athlete with early knockout power with 15 of his 19 wins coming by knockout. The main issue with Walker is his durability and his defensive grappling. He has been knocked out four times in his career and his takedown defense is just 58% in the UFC.

His opponent, Paul Craig is coming off a decision loss to Volkan Oezdemir in July. Craig is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the UFC and 13 of his 16 wins have come by submission. His striking is not great but it has been improving and he still does have some power on the feet. The obvious weakness with Craig is that he is very one-dimensional and if he cannot get his grappling going then he likely gets finished. He has only reached the judges’ scorecards once in his entire career.

This is a really entertaining matchup with both guys being aggressive finishers but also questionable durability as well. For that reason, I think you want exposure to both sides on DraftKings. But the official pick is Paul Craig by submission and he is a good underdog pick on DraftKings.

Jessica Andrade vs Lauren Murphy
Andrade, -490; Murphy, +390

We last saw Jessica Andrade in a main event against Amanda Lemos and she won by first-round submission in April of last year. She is currently on a two-fight winning streak with both victories coming inside the first round. She is extremely powerful for the division and 17 of her 23 wins have come inside the distance. She is fighting in front of her hometown and is one of the bigger favorites on the entire card so it is not surprising to see she will have multiple advantages in this matchup.

Her opponent, Lauren Murphy is coming off a decision win over Meisha Tate in July. She turns 40 years old this summer but has won six of her seven fights with the only loss being against the champion, Valentina Shevchenko. She is not exceptional in any area but is very well-rounded with decent boxing and volume along with a competent ground game as well.

I think Murphy can make this a dog fight if she can survive through the first round. But I think Andrade being able to explode and overwhelm her early is more likely. Andrade by TKO is the official pick.

Gilbert Burns vs Neil Magny
Burns, -410; Magny, +330

Gilbert Burns is coming off a decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 273 last April. He gave a good account of himself coming in as a sizable underdog and had some big moments throughout the fight. Burns striking defense is not great but he does have explosive power on the feet. But it is clear that his biggest strength has always been his jiu jitsu. Eight of his 20 career wins have come by submission and he holds a black belt in BJJ.

His opponent, Neil Magny is coming off a third-round submission victory over Daniel Rodriguez in November. Magny is going to be much bigger in this matchup as he is five inches taller and will hold a nine-inch reach advantage. For that reason, I think Magny could have some success in the striking as the much longer fighter with a more educated jab. But I do think Burns is the better grappler and I expect them to grapple enough this weekend which has me leaning towards Burns in this fight. Burns by decision is the official pick.

Brandon Moreno vs Deiveson Figueiredo
Moreno, -120; Figueiredo, +100

Brandon Moreno meets Deiveson Figueiredo for the highly anticipated rematch in what is now the fourth time these fighters will square off. They first went to a draw when they fought in December of 2020 at UFC 256 in a fight that many people thought Figueiredo won even with the point deduction. They ran it back at UFC 263 last June and Moreno dominated the fight for as long as it lasted until submitting Figueiredo in the third round and claiming the flyweight belt. Lastly, Figueiredo edged out a close decision in the trilogy bout at UFC 270.

Moreno has incredible durability as he has never been finished in his professional career and is coming off a third-round TKO finish over Kai Kara-France in July at UFC 277. He has always had a dangerous ground game with great scrambling ability, but he has also proven his striking is on par with Figueiredo based on the first three fights.

On the flip side, Figueiredo is historically one of the best finishers the flyweight division has ever seen. He hits harder than anyone in the division and has some dangerous chokes in his own right. He has now put cardio concerns mostly to rest being that he has gone the full 25 minutes twice against Moreno and bested him both times without the point deduction.

In these types of matchups where the margins are so thin, I almost always want to side with whoever is the plus-money side. In this particular matchup, we are currently getting Figueiredo as the plus money underdog and I slightly favor him to win. I will have exposure to both sides on DraftKings and this is an excellent fight to target due to the high paced nature of these fighters. Figueiredo by decision is the official pick. 

Jamahal Hill vs Glover Teixeira
Hill, -130; Teixeira, +110

Jamahal Hill comes in fresh off a win over Thiago Santos in August. He is currently on a three-fight winning streak since getting his arm snapped by Paul Craig at UFC 263. He is a powerful striker with explosive power as seven of his 11 wins have come by knockout. The worry with Hill has always been his defensive grappling as he has been taken down six times in his last fight and six times against Darko Stosic as well.

His opponent, Glover Teixeira is coming off a crazy fight against Jiri Prozachka at UFC 275. He ended up losing by submission in the final round after winning the early rounds. At a ripe age of 43 years old, he has already proven that he is still a tough out for any opponent in the division. His durability is the biggest issue as he has been knocked out three times in his career and has been stunned or wobbled countless other times.

That being said, he has an impressive ability to power through the adversity and get the fight to the ground where he needs it. He is an aggressive grappler and is very dangerous in top position with his last three wins coming inside the distance. This is a great matchup as the younger Hill will likely have the striking advantage but his weakness on the ground plays right into the hands of the veteran, Glover. This is a main event that you should target both sides on DraftKings. But I think the ground game is too much for Hill if Glover survives long enough to get it there and I think he will. Glover by submission is the official pick.