We are back for another exciting weekend of combat sports for UFC 276 at the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas. We have a fun 12-fight slate on DraftKings and an absolutely stacked card with all 12 fights being exciting matchups. It also helps that on DraftKings we have another $200,000 to first place in the main contest.

As always, I give my analysis and DraftKings strategy based on how I see each fight matchup playing out. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter  with any questions that you have leading up until fight night Saturday.

Jessica-Rose Clark vs Julija Stoliarenko
Clark, -140; Stoliarenko, +120

Jessica-Rose Clark is coming off a first-round submission loss to Stephanie Egger in February which snapped a two-fight win streak for her. It was also the first time she had been submitted in her entire career. Clark is well-rounded fighter that has recently leaned on her wrestling more often than not and she now averages just under two takedowns per 15 minutes.

Her opponent, Julija Stoliarenko is coming off a decision loss to Alexis Davis in February. She is 0-3 in the UFC and has had very few moments of success through her UFC tenure. She is historically an armbar or bust style fighter as eight of her nine career victories were first-round armbar submissions. She is always live to snatch an arm, but I rate that much less likely than the current odds suggest her winning percentage to be.

Clark is so clearly the better minute winner in this matchup as she will be throwing more volume on the feet and Stoliarenko does not move her head off the center line or defend strikes well. When Clark mixes in the takedowns, she will need to be aware of the armbar as Stoliarenko is dangerous immediately after being taken down. Once Clark secures position though she should be safe and outside of getting caught she will get her hand raised. Clark by decision is the official pick.

Brad Tavares vs Dricus Du Plessis
Tavares, -115; Du Plessis, -105

Brad Tavares is coming off a split-decision victory over Omari Akhmedov last July. He is currently on a two-fight win streak and looks to make it three in a row against the surging Dricus Du Plessis. Tavares is a seasoned veteran with a well-rounded skillset, but I do have concerns with him in this matchup. For starters, he just does not put enough activity out there so his margins are thin even in fights he is winning. Secondly, his durability is still a concern to me having been knocked out three times in his career.

His opponent, Du Plessis is 2-0 in the UFC with both wins coming by knockout. He is a dangerous finisher with a kill or be killed mentality. Just four of his 18 career fights have reached the third round and none of those fights went the full 15 minutes. He is not super technical but a very explosive athlete with clear knockout power.

I expect Du Plessis to be swinging for the fences early in this fight and he will likely test the chin of Tavares. Even if Tavares is able to avoid getting dropped, which I’m not sure he will, he is liable to lose minutes due to inactivity if Du Plessis having the bigger moments. Du Plessis by knockout is the official pick and he is a high-upside pick on DraftKings in the mid-range this week.

Maycee Barber vs Jessica Eye
Barber, -225; Eye, +190

Maycee Barber is coming off a dominant performance over Montana De La Rosa in April. She is currently on a two-fight win streak and has shown some improvements since her early UFC days of just bulldozing her opponents and knocking them out. She is still a powerful striker but more technical with her boxing and will mix in the takedowns as she averages 1.3 takedowns per 15 minutes. She is going to have a clear physicality advantage in this matchup to go along with the volume and wrestling as well.

Her opponent, Jessica Eye is coming off a decision loss to Jennifer Maia last July. She is currently on a three-fight losing streak and turns 36 years old in just a few weeks so the optics are not great from that standpoint. She has made a name for herself with her boxing, but I have a hard time seeing how she wins this fight against Barber. Even if Eye can keep up with the volume of Barber, the power difference is going to be clear. And the takedowns will be there as much as Barber wants them as Eye only defends at just 57%.

Barber by decision is the official pick but there are better fights to target on DraftKings this week. I prefer the other expensive fighters around her in that range.

Andre Muniz vs Uriah Hall
Muniz, -245; Hall, +205

Andre Muniz is coming off a first-round submission victory over Eryk Anders in December. He is 4-0 in the UFC and currently on an eight-fight win streak. He is a dangerous submission grappler with 15 of his 22 career wins coming by submission including his last three fights being first-round armbars. He is next level on the mat and capable of submitting anyone if the fight gets there. The main concern with Muniz is his cardio and durability as he has been knocked out in all four of his career losses.

His opponent, Uriah Hall is coming off a main event decision loss to Sean Strickland last July. That loss snapped a four-fight win streak for him in what has been a late resurgence in his career to a degree. Hall is a technical kickboxer with legitimate knockout power and his speed has always been one of his biggest strengths even at nearly 38 years old. He will need to keep the fight standing where he should have the striking advantage. But that is easier said than done as Hall does not have great takedown defense at just 65% and he has also been knocked out four times in his career so his durability is not great either.

I am expecting this fight to score well as it likely ends with a finish either way. But what I keep going back to is that Muniz is likely going to land multiple takedowns in this fight and although Hall has never been submitted, Muniz is going to threaten him repeatedly until he gets the submission. Muniz by submission is the official pick.

Jim Miller vs Donald Cerrone
Miller, -210; Cerrone, +180

 It is always a pleasure when we get to watch Jim “A10” Miller inside the octagon. Miller is coming off a second-round knockout over Nikolas Motta in February. He is currently on a two-fight win streak with both victories coming by stoppage. He is notoriously known for his dangerous submission skills as he has 18 submission victories and holds a black belt in BJJ. But it has been his boxing that has been taking care of business for him lately with back-to-back knockouts.

His opponent, Donald Cerrone was scheduled to fight Joe Lauzon twice now and each guy pulled out once with Lauzon having a leg injury that will keep him sidelined. This is a tougher matchup for Cerrone as Miller is likely just as dangerous as Lauzon if not more dangerous and for a longer period as well. Cerrone is the better counter striker and should have the cardio edge but trusting him at this stage in his career is too much. He has been knocked out eight times in his career including in four of his last five losses.

That was obviously against the upper tier of the division, but Miller has power in his hands and typically starts fast so Cerrone is liable to get hurt in round one. Miller by knockout is the official pick and this is another good fight to target on DraftKings.

Ian Garry vs Gabe Green
Garry, -155; Green, +135

Ian Garry is coming off a decision victory over Darian Weeks in April. He is an undefeated prospect with a 9-0 record with five of his nine wins coming by knockout. Despite the impressive record and hype train, I still have concerns about Garry as he starts to face a higher level of competition. Garry is a powerful striker, but his defense is tough to trust as he relies on head movement and tends to get hit a lot.

His opponent, Gabe Green is coming off a second-round knockout victory over Yohan Lainesse in April. He is currently on a two-fight win streak with his only UFC loss coming against Daniel Rodriguez in his UFC debut. Green is a high-volume striker that will push a big pace and has the cardio to keep it up as well. The problem is that he is just as hittable as Garry as his striking defense is nonexistent.

I expect this fight to play out on the feet with both guys having success at times. I want to fade Garry but I’m not sure if Green is the guy to do it with and we are not getting much of a discount on him either. Garry by knockout is the official pick but I don’t trust this guy at all and will have exposure to both sides on DraftKings.

Robbie Lawler vs Bryan Barberena
Lawler, -125; Barberena, +105

Robbie Lawler is coming off a third-round TKO victory over Nick Diaz last September at UFC 266. That fight was honestly embarrassing on both sides, but Lawler was able to snap his four-fight losing skid as his last win previously was back in 2017. Lawler has always been known for his power with 21 of his 29 victories coming by knockout. But at 40 years old with a ton of fighting miles on his body, I cannot seem to get behind seeing him as a favorite in this matchup.

His opponent, Bryan Barberena is coming off a decision victory over Matt Brown which was an absolute war where both fighters had moments. Barberena is pretty shop worn himself, but he will throw in volume, and I trust him a bit more than Lawler in general. However, both guys have durability concerns so it is difficult to flag plant on either side as I will be hedging on DraftKings but leaning towards Barberena overall. Barberena by decision is the official pick but a knockout on either side would not surprise me at all considering how dusted both fighters are.

Jalin Turner vs Brad Riddell
Turner, -135; Riddell, +115

This has the potential to be the best fight on the entire card in my opinion. I respect the hell out of both of these fighters, and they always bring fireworks every time they step into the octagon. Jalin Turner is coming off an impressive second-round knockout victory over Jamie Mullarkey in March at UFC 272. He is currently on a four-fight win streak with all four wins coming via stoppage. He is massive for the division and has power on the feet along with an underrated grappling game as well.

His opponent, Brad Riddell is coming off a third-round knockout to Rafael Fiziev in December. Riddell is a very technical striker and relies on his timing and powerful counter shots. He is clearly one of the more skilled fighters that Turner has yet to face in the UFC. But this seems to be a difficult matchup for Riddell as he is going to be undersized substantially and giving up a six-inch reach advantage.

Additionally, Turner is so difficult to deal with as he is constantly coming at you from different angles and has various weapons to throw at you. Riddell has the potential to clip Turner with a big counter shot during one of the exchanges but unless he is able to hurt Turner, I see Turner being too much for him to handle. Turner is also going to be much more physical and could impose some grappling if it comes to that as well. Turner by submission is the official pick and this is a great fight to target on DraftKings as I am expecting the winner to score well.

Sean O’Malley vs Pedro Munhoz
O’Malley, -260; Munhoz, +220

Sean O’Malley is coming off an impressive knockout victory over Raulian Paiva in December. He is currently on a three-fight win streak with all three victories coming by knockout. We know what to expect from O’Malley as he is one of the best strikers in this division. He has great footwork, and the speed of his strikes is what really sets him apart. His biggest issues have always been his susceptibility to leg kicks and his questionable cardio.

His opponent, Pedro Munhoz is coming off a decision loss to Dominick Cruz in December and is currently on a two-fight losing streak. Munhoz is a high-volume striker but lacks defensive awareness and gets hit way too much to make you feel good against a powerful striker like O’Malley. The only real upside for Munhoz in this matchup is that he has great leg kicks and that is a clear leak in O’Malley’s game. But outside of Munhoz being able to really compromise the legs of O’Malley, I see him getting massively outpointed at range and potential hurt as the fight goes on. O’Malley by decision is the official pick.

Alex Pereira vs Sean Strickland
Pereira, -115; Strickland, -105

Alex Pereira is coming off a decision victory over Bruno Silva his last time out in March. He is just 5-1 in MMA with four of his five wins coming by knockout. He comes from a high-level kickboxing background and is a former Glory kickboxing world champion. He is clearly a very skilled striker and has dangerous power while the fight plays out on the feet. But I still have major concerns with his defensive grappling at the UFC level.

His opponent, Sean Strickland is coming off a “split” decision win over Jack Hermansson courtesy of Sal D’Amato in February. He is currently on a six-fight win streak with four of those coming by decision. He is a technical boxer with a great jab and will fight behind his jab for 15 minutes. But many are hoping he implements some grappling in this matchup as it will be a clear advantage for him against the one-dimensional striker in Pereira.

I favor Strickland’s cardio along with him being the much more proven fighter in terms of MMA experience against tougher competition. While the fight plays out on the feet, I expect him to be competitive as long as he can avoid getting knocked out. If he mixes in the takedowns and grapples, then he has upside to look like a substantial favorite and that is why I side with him in this matchup. Strickland by decision is the official pick but I will look to be under the field on this fight in general on DraftKings.

Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway
Volkanovski, -190; Holloway, +160

The trilogy for the featherweight strap goes down this weekend as Alexander Volkanovski looks to defend his belt once again versus Max Holloway. Volkanovski is coming off an absolute beatdown over Chan Sung Jung in April. He is extremely difficult to deal with as he is very high output on the feet and capable of mixing in the wrestling as well as he averages right around two takedowns per 15 minutes. He also has excellent cardio, and it is very impressive that he is able to keep his high pace over 25 minutes if needed.

His opponent, Max Holloway is coming off a legendary fight against Yair Rodriguez where both fighters went to war for the 25 minutes which resulted in a Holloway decision. If there is one fighter in the division that can match the output and pace of Volkanovski, it is Holloway. Statistically speaking, he averages more significant strikes landed per minute and I do think he will have a clear boxing advantage in this fight. He has shown that in the two previous fights against each other but where he struggled was with the leg attacks of Volkanovski.

It is a clear gameplan for Volkanovski to beat up the lead leg of Holloway and it really affects Holloway’s footwork when he has to switch to southpaw. As much as I love Holloway, Volkanovski has proved twice that he has the skills and the right blueprint to win this fight. So even though I expect Holloway to be competitive over 25 minutes, I have to side with Volkanovski to get his hand raised. Volkanovski by decision is the official pick and this is a great fight to target on DraftKings due to the high-volume output on both sides.

Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier
Adesanya, -365; Cannonier, +300

Israel Adesanya is coming off a decision victory over Robert Whittaker at UFC 271 in February. He is 22-1 and perfect at Middleweight with his lone loss coming against Jan Blachowicz when he moved up to Light Heavyweight which was a one-time thing according to him. Adesanya is arguably one of the most technical strikers the UFC has ever seen. He comes from a high-level striking background and will have a clear striking advantage in this matchup as well.

His opponent, Jared Cannonier is coming off a second-round knockout over Derek Brunson on the same UFC 271 PPV card in February. Cannonier cannot match Adesanya’s striking or cardio over 25 minutes. What he does have though, is game changing power. Five of his last six victories have come by knockout and he will need to hurt Adesanya to have a chance to touch Middleweight gold.

I expect Adesanya to be patient early on in this fight as he respects the power of Cannonier. But we have seen Adesanya pick his spots very well in this style of fight and I expect a similar result on Saturday. Outside of a big punch dropping Adesanya, which I do not see very likely, Adesanya remains the king in this division. Adesanya by decision is the official pick but I will likely come in under the field on DraftKings as I am expecting a lower scoring title fight.