$8.5K Kay Hansen vs $7.7K Jinh Yu Frey

Kay Hansen comes in as a small (-135) favorite and the comeback on Jinh Yu Frey is (+115). Hansen is coming in on a two-fight win streak and most recently winning a decision back in March. Jinh Yu Frey is coming off a decision win over Ashley Cummings back in February. Both of these girls fought in Invicta and we have a classic wrestler vs striker matchup. While the fight plays out on the feet, I have to favor Frey as she should have a speed advantage and Hansen isn’t much of a striker. With that being said, Hansen will be looking to close the distance and get inside where she has a sizable advantage in the clinch and on the mat. She is a strong wrestler and will have the size advantage as Frey has fought at Atomweight previously. Hansen is also a purple belt in BJJ and is the better submission grappler as Frey is only a blue belt and not very comfortable off her back. I expect this to play out similarly to the Robertson vs Casey fight but Frey being less of a threat on bottom. Hansen by decision is the official pick.

$8.2K Jordan Griffin vs $8K Youssef Zalal

Jordan Griffin opened as a slight favorite but it has since moved to a pick ’em fight against Youssef Zalal. Griffin is coming off the second-round submission win over TJ Brown back in February. Youssef Zalal made his debut against fellow newcomer, Austin Lingo, back at UFC 247 and looked pretty dominant on his way to a unanimous decision. This fight should be competitive as both fighters are good submission grapplers and I think we see some exciting scrambles on the mat. With that being said, I do feel that Zalal is being a bit overvalued in the betting markets just based off that Austin Lingo win. Griffin is the more experienced fighter and I would give him an edge in the grappling department as he holds a purple belt in BJJ and held his own against Dan Ige and Chas Skelly. On the feet is where I can see it being very close as neither guy is super technical. Griffin is more of a counter striker while Zalal will dance around the octagon and try to land quick strikes. I give the speed advantage to Zalal but that’s basically it and I can see him having problems if he tries to use that same gameplan against Griffin. My money is on Griffin here as I see him having most of the advantages in this matchup. I could see this fight scoring well if it has the grappling exchanges and scrambles that I’m expecting, making it a solid fight to target in the mid-range. The downside is if it plays out primarily on the feet then I think we see a low-scoring decision where both fighters bust due to their low-volume styles. I’m leaning towards the former though so Griffin by submission is the official pick.

$8.4K Takashi Sato vs $7.8K Ramiz Brahimaj

Takashi Sato comes in as a (-130) favorite and the comeback on UFC newcomer, Ramiz Brahimaj is (+110). Sato is coming off a submission loss to Belal Muhammad his last time out last September. His last six wins have all come by KO and his last two losses by submission so it’s clear that he wants to keep this fight on the feet. He is a decent striker with legitimate power and is a black belt in Judo. His opponent, Ramiz Brahimaj is a world champion grappler who has won all eight of his professional wins by way of submission. He is an aggressive grappler that has one of the best guillotines that I’ve ever seen and holds a purple belt in BJJ. This is a classic power puncher versus polished grappler matchup and I’m going with the grappler in this one. Sato has a problem giving up his back and if he does that against Brahimaj then it won’t take long. I fully understand if you don’t trust a UFC debut fighter who finishes guys by submission early after what happened with Rohskopf last week but each fighter and each matchup is different so I’m going back to the well. Either way, Sato is always live for a KO so the winner of this fight should score very well in the mid-range. Brahimaj by submission is the official pick and I’ll be betting that as well.

*UPDATE* Ramiz corner tested positive and was forced to pull out and will be replaced by Jason Witt. The odds and pricing aren’t out yet but I expect Sato to be a sizable favorite and will likely become pretty heavily owned now. I do favor Sato in the striking department but Witt does have a couple knockouts himself and has seven wins by way of submission. He is certainly a live dog and with only 10 fights we need to find a way to get leverage on the field so he is certainly interesting in tournaments. Depending on where they price him I would put him near the top of my underdogs this week.

$8.8K Sean Woodson vs $7.4K Julian Erosa

Sean Woodson comes in as a (-400) favorite and the comeback on Julian Erosa is (+330). Woodson is coming an impressive UFC debut against Kyle Bochniak last October where he was pretty dominant in the striking department. He is extremely tall for this division and will have a four-inch reach advantage against Julian Erosa. Erosa is coming off a KO loss to Julio Arce in May of last year. He is 0-4 in the UFC and has been knocked out in three of those bouts. With that being said, I think the line being this wide is pretty surprising considering the lack of experience in Woodson. I think he is the rightful favorite but laying (-400) in any matchup is a bit much. Overall, I think Woodson should be able to outpoint Erosa on his way to a decision and possibly even knock him out. I still think Woodson by decision is the most likely scenario and he is certainly in the mix on DraftKings at $8.8K.

$8.3K Philipe Lins vs $7.9K Tanner Boser

Philipe Lins comes in as the slightest of favorites at (-115) with Tanner Boser the underdog at (-105). This is going to be interesting to see how the field trusts Lins in this matchup considering he busted hard in his debut as a big favorite against Andrei Arlovski last month. He only landed 41 significant strikes over the course of three rounds and that’s my biggest issue with him is that he waits too long to engage as he is mostly a counter-striker. Tanner Boser is very similar to Arlovski in that he moves very well for a heavyweight and will likely dance around the outside and try to land a lot of leg kicks while mixing in some heavy overhand rights. Lins hinted in an interview that he thinks he has a big advantage on the ground and could take the fight there but I’ll believe it when I see it. Lins is a black belt in BJJ but held a grappling advantage against Arlovski and was not even remotely interested in taking him down. Also, Boser has yet to be taken down in either of his UFC fights, has never been subbed in his career and has one hell of a chin. I just see this playing out nearly the same as Lins last fight and for that reason the pick is Boser by decision.

$8.9K Luis Pena vs $7.3K Khama Worthy

Luis Pena comes in as a (-260) favorite and the comeback on Khama Worthy is (+220). Violent Bob Ross is most recently off a unanimous decision victory at the end of February against Steve Garcia. Khama Worthy is coming off a big KO victory in the first round against Devonte Smith during his UFC debut in August of last year. He is on a six fight win streak with back to back wins by knockout but his last five losses have all been by KO as well. That is essentially the type of fighter he is in that if he is unable to knock you out then it’s likely he loses the fight. In this matchup against Luis Pena, I think his takedown defense is going to be tested as Pena has landed a takedown in all of his UFC fights prior to his last one and is an aggressive submission grappler. Pena is a good striker as well and will likely box with Worthy for a few minutes but it’s during the grappling exchanges where he really shines. I’m okay with taking shots on Worthy for the KO upside in tournaments but Pena has never been finished so I don’t think it’s a very likely occurrence. I have Pena winning by decision but he does have some grappling for his price on DraftKings.

$8.6K Maurice Greene vs $7.6K Gian Villante

Maurice “Crochet Boss” Greene comes in as a (-230) and the comeback on Gian Villante is (+190). Maurice Greene is coming off a submission loss to Alexey Oleynik and prior to that was knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich. That is a lot of respect in the betting markets for someone that was finished in back to back fights and biggest UFC win is Junior Albini. But in any event, he should have some advantages in this matchup against Gian Villante who is coming off a knockout loss last year. I see Greene as being the more well-rounded striker and will have a six-inch reach advantage in this matchup. He also has a strong ITD line at (-123) after openeing at (+105) making him a strong play at only $8.6K on DraftKings. Green by decision is the official pick but he does have some decent finishing potential as well. No interest in Villante for me.

$9.2K Brendan Allen vs $7K Kyle Daukaus

Brendan Allen comes in as a big (-300) favorite and the comeback on UFC newcomer, Kyle Daukaus is (+250). Allen is 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Kevin Holland and a TKO vicotry over Tom Breese in February. Kyle Daukaus is undefeated in his professional career and has won eight of his nine wins by submission. He is a tall and lanky southpaw that excels on the mat but does have some decent power on the feet. This is a very difficult matchup for him as Brendan Allen is a brown belt in BJJ and has fought the much better competition up to this point so it’s no surpise he is such a heavy favorite. While the fight plays out on the feet, Daukaus should have an advantage and I could see him landing something heavy but Allen has never been knocked out and is super tough to put away. At some point this fight hits the mat and Daukaus may even look to take it there himself but that will be a mistake. I see Allen as the much better scrambler and submission grappler and think he has the better gas tank as well. We should see some exciting grappling exchanges but I’m going with my boy Allen here and think he gets it done by submission. I’ll have some exposure to Daukaus as well as the winner will score well and you should get some decent leverage but Allen by submission is the official pick in this one. He is the most expensive fighter on the slate though which I don’t love and will likely be underweight to the field.

$9K Mike Perry vs $7.2K Mickey Gall

Mike Perry comes in as the biggest favorite on the slate at (-325) and the comeback on Mickey Gall is (+265). Mike Perry is coming off a KO loss to Geoff Neal in December and has recently sworn off coaches and gyms and only trains with his girlfriend. I wish I was making that up because Perry actually has some decent talent. In any event, he is facing Mickey Gall so none of that stuff should matter come Saturday. Gall is just someone that I am not impressed with whatsoever. He has known cardio issues and was knocked out by Diego Sanchez just last year. It’s no surprise that Mike Perry has a very strong ITD line at (-180) and I really don’t have anything else to say about this matchup. I think Perry goes in there and gets the job done and wins by knockout. He is a strong play at $9k on DraftKings.

$8.7K Dan Hooker vs $7.5K Dustin Poirier

Dustin Poirer comes in as a (-220) favorite and Dan “Hangman” Hooker, the underdog at (+180). Poirier is coming off the title shot loss to Khabib last September and will be looking to make a statement here to get back in the conversation with Gaethje leap frogging him in line to the title. Dan Hooker is coming off the action-packed decision victory over Paul Felder in February. I’m all over Poirier in this matchup and don’t even think it’s up for debate. I realistically see him having every advantage in this fight on the feet and especially on the mat. Poirier is the more technical striker, has more power and lands in more volume than Hooker. The only success I could see Hooker having is by landing a bunch of leg kicks which I expect to be the gameplan. Being that this is a five round fight, it only gives me more confidence in Poirier as he has much better cardio than Hooker and is able to maintain a strong pace over the course of 25 minutes. He is also a black belt in BJJ will have a massive advantage on the mat if he decides to take the fight there. There is levels to this and Hooker is in over his head with this matchup. Poirier realistically has many paths to victory here but I see knockout being the most likely and will likely bet that as well. Poirier by knockout is the official pick and he is one of the best overall plays on DraftKings.

Favorite Bets:

Hansen by decision (+150)
Griffin moneyline (+100)
Brahimaj by submission (+260)
Perry by KO (-170)
Poirier by KO (+160 odds boosted on FD)