$7.8 Austin Hubbard vs $8.4K Max Rohskopf

Max Rohskopf comes in as a (-185) favorite and the comeback on Austin Hubbard is (+155). Vegas is giving a ton of respect to the UFC newcomer here despite coming in as a short-notice replacement for Joe Solecki who pulled out of this fight. I’ll start by saying you need to believe the hype on this kid because he is the real deal. I legitimately think he could be a contender within the next five years. He has a high level wrestling background as he wrestled at NC State and won the ACC Championship in 2016 at 165 lbs. After an injury the following year, he transitioned to martial arts and became a force to be reckoned with. He is also an excellent grappler and all five of his professional wins have come by submission – all but one in the first round. Meanwhile, Austin Hubbard is coming off a decision loss to Mark Madsen, another high-level wrestler who Rohskopf has actually trained with. What sucks is that Hubbard is actually a good fighter and we even saw him have some moments in the third round against Madsen but this is a very bad matchup for him. He is terrible at defending takedowns at just 45% and I expect Rohskopf to take him down at will. Additionally, Hubbard is much more comfortable striking and not very good off his back so that is going to be a problem here. He was able to stay alive against Madsen but Rohskopf is a much better submission grappler training under Robert Drysdale. Lastly, Rohskopf is priced at only $8.4K making him the best play on the entire slate in my opinion. Even if he doesn’t get the sub, he is likely landing at least five takedowns here to go along with multiple advances. Regardless, I think he gets the submission win again here and that is one of my most confident bets in a long time.

$8.5K Roxanne Modafferi vs $7.7K Lauren Murphy

Roxanne Modafferi is coming in as a slight favorite here at (-125) and the comeback on Lauren Murphy is (+105). Modafferi is coming off the big time upset over Maycee Barber back at UFC 246. Despite coming through as a big underdog last time out, I still don’t trust her and I see some problems for her in this matchup. For starters, although she is a black belt in BJJ, she doesn’t land many takedowns in most of her fights. Murphy is a purple belt in BJJ and isn’t great at defending takedowns but it won’t matter if Modafferi is content to stand at range. If that’s the case, I definitely lean towards Murphy in the striking department as she has much more power and lands in more volume as well. She is also a purple belt in BJJ so it isn’t like if Modafferi does get it to the ground that Murphy can’t defend herself. Because I have no faith in Modafferi forcing that wrestling gameplan, I’m going with the dog here in Murphy as the better striker who has never been finished. Murphy by decision is the official pick.

$8.2K Matt Frevola vs $8K Frank Camacho

Matt Frevola comes in as the slightest of favorites at (-115) and Frank Camacho, the slight underdog at (-105). Frevola is coming off back to back wins and most recently a split decision win over Violent Bob Ross, Luis Pena. He is a strong wrestler and lands over three takedowns per 15 minutes and is typically moving forward looking to pressure his opponent. That is going to be interesting here as Camacho is also a high-paced fighter that wants to get busy early. Camacho lands over six and a half significant strikes per minute and on the feet he should have an advantage if he can fend off the takedowns. He defends takedowns at 72% in his career so he’s not going to make it easy on Frevola and he is also a black belt in BJJ. The problem with this fight is that it could realistically go either way. Both guys have exciting fighting styles and want to be moving forward so the fact we are in a smaller cage again only adds to the excitement. I’ll have pieces of both sides because I think the winner should score well here but the pick is Frevola because I trust his cardio and durability a bit more. This fight as a whole is (-130) not to go to decision and I think that could even be low so I expect that to increase later this week. Frevola by decision is the official pick.
** UPDATE **
Justin Jaynes will step in on short notice to replace Matt Frevola. Justin Jaynes looks to actually have some talent but this is a tough ask to come in on extremely short notice and fight someone like Frank Camacho. If this were a different matchup and Jaynes had a full camp then I would definitely have some more interest in him. He trains out of Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas and is a brown belt in BJJ with some decent striking and wrestling. If playing 10 or more lineups then I’m okay with targeting him in one or two for the extra leverage against the chalky Camacho. But with that being said, it’s difficult to ignore the strong inside distance line of Camacho (-190) at only $8k. Camacho is the official pick but I’m not sold that it comes by KO as Jaynes has yet to be finished. Regardless, this is a fight that you need to have some exposure too but I’ll likely be under the field on Camacho in the main GPP.

$7.9K Cortney Casey vs $8.3K Gillian Robertson

Gillian Robertson comes in as a slight favorite here at (-120) and the comeback on Cortney Casey is (+100). Robertson is coming off a KO loss to Maycee Barber last October and all six of her UFC fights have ended inside the distance. Cortney Casey is coming off the first round submission victory over Mara Borella last month. I’m pretty sure I’ve been on Gillian Robertson in all of her UFC fights and that’s not going to change this week. Robertson is a strong wrestler for this division and lands just under three and a half takedowns per 15 minutes. She is a purple belt in BJJ and has some strong ground and pound but it’s going to be wrestling that is the biggest advantage in this matchup. Cortney Casey is the better striker and throws in more volume but she only defends takedowns at 39% which is very poor and she’s been taken down in eight of her 11 UFC fights. She is however, a black belt in BJJ so she may be able to stay alive on the mat but due to the control time and repeated takedowns by Robertson, I have to side with her in this one. Robertson by decision is the official pick and she is very live for a finish as well. She is another strong play in the mid-range.

$7.6K Marc-Andre Barriault vs $8.6K Oskar Piechota

Oskar Piechota comes in as another slight favorite for this card at (-125) and Marc-Andre Barriault, the underdog at (+105). Piechota is on a three fight losing streak but has faced two high-level grapplers in Gerald Meerschaert and Rodolfo Veira. Most recently, he was knocked out by Punahele Soriano who knocked him out in the first round back in December. Marc-Andre Barriault hasn’t been much better in the UFC as he has lost all three of his UFC bouts by decision. He has some knockout power but we haven’t seen it at the UFC level yet and he is generally getting out-pointed on the feet. He has also only landed one takedown in his three UFC fights and Piechota is a black belt in BJJ so I doubt he is looking to take the fight there. Ultimately, I see this playing out at range where I slightly favor Barriault’s power although I don’t think either guy is very good. I don’t have a ton of interest in this fight as both fighters land under two fantasy points per minute but this fight as a whole is (-140) not to go to decision so we can’t ignore it completely. The pick is Barriault by decision and I’ll have some exposure to him in the hopes that Piechota’s chin gets exposed again.

$7.2K Tecia Torres vs $9K Brianna Van Buren

Brianna Van Buren comes in as a (-190) favorite and the comeback on Tecia Torres is (+165). Brianna the bull is coming off her UFC debut where she came through as an underdog againt Livinha Souza last July. She is an excellent wrestler for this division and landed three takedowns in her UFC debut. She also has decent striking and cardio and holds a brown belt in BJJ. Tecia Torres is currently on a four fight losing streak and most recently dropped a unanimous decision to Marina Rodriguez last August. The only advantage that Tecia has in this matchup is possibly in the striking department but it’s close and I would still give Van Buren the power advantage. Where I see the biggest advantage is in the wrestling department as Van Buren could have success against most fighters in this division but Torres especially, as she only defends takedowns at 52%. Van Buren by decision is the official pick but she is also live for a finish as Torres is only a blue belt and not a great grappler. Van Buren is priced up on DraftKings so you will have to pay for her but she is still in the mix. She is one of my favorite bets this week as well.

$7.1K Clay Guida vs $9.1K Bobby Green

Bobby Green comes in as the second biggest favorite on the card at (-235) and the comeback on Clay Guida is (+195). Bobby Green is on a two-fight losing streak with both fights being close decisions that didn’t go in his favor. Clay Guida is coming off a first-round submission loss against Jim Miller last August. This one is fairly straight forward for me to break down. Bobby Green has a clear striking advantage and is much more active on the feet at just under five significant strikes per minute. The wrestling and grappling advantage lies with Guida but I’m not confident that he will aggressively look to take the fight to the ground or that he will even have success in doing so. Ultimately, I see this one playing out primarily as a boxing match in which I favor Green to get the job done so Green by decision is the official pick. With that being said, Green doesn’t have a strong history with judges decisions so hold on to your butts!

$7K Jim Miller vs $9.2K Roosevelt Roberts

Roosevelt Roberts comes in as a (-225) favorite and the come back on Jim “A-10” Miller is (+185). Jim Miller is coming off a decision loss to Scott Holtzman back in February but prior to that his last five fights had ended in the first round. He comes from a wrestling background is a black belt in BJJ. His opponent, Roosevelt Roberts, is coming off a beating that he put on Brok Weaver just three weeks ago. He is a brown belt in BJJ but I definitely give the grappling advantage to Miller. When it comes to the striking, I lean Roberts but it will be interesting to see if he tries to go to the ground with Miller. I think Roberts is the rightful favorite here but the line is too wide so it’s not surprising to see money coming in on the veteran, Jim Miller. In terms of DraftKings, Roberts is basically a complete fade for me because he is the second most expensive fighter on the slate and he only scores just over two fantasy points per minute. Outside of the massive score against Weaver, he generally doesn’t score that well either. I have a decent amount of interest in Jim Miller not just because I think he has a real shot to win here but also because if he does win then he should score well at his cheap price tag.

$7.3K Lyman Good vs $8.9K Belal Muhammad

Belal Muhammad comes in as a small favorite here at (-120) and the comeback on Lyman Good is (+100). Muhammad is on a two-fight win streak and most recently coming off a third round finish against Takashi Sato last September. Lyman Good is coming off a third round KO victory over Chance Rencountre in November. This fight was supposed to happen a few months back but Lyman Good had to pull out due to corona virus but now we should be good to go pending this week’s test results. In terms of the matchup, I have it being pretty even on the feet with a slight lean towards Good due to the power and activity as he lands over five significant strikes per minute. In terms of the wrestling and grappling, Muhammad should have a slight advantage as he lands more takedowns and is a purple belt in BJJ. With that being said, Good defends takedowns at 75% and I’m not sure how aggressive Muhammad will be to even take it there. For that reason, I expect this fight to mostly play out on the feet where I think we see a competitive decision but the pick is Lyman good. He’s another underdog that is priced cheap that could score well in a win.

$8.8K Raquel Pennington vs $7.7K Marion Reneau

Raquel Pennington comes in as a (-150) favorite and the underdog, Marion Reneau is (+130). Pennington is coming off a decision loss to Holly Holm back in January in what was one of the most boring fights I’ve ever seen. Reneau is on a two-fight losing streak coming off a decision loss to Yana Kunitskaya in march of 2019. Her last four wins have come by finish as she has some legit power on the feet and is a black belt in BJJ. With that being said, she turns 43 years old this year and hasn’t fought in 15 months so there are some real concerns here. But I have concerns with Pennington as well. Not only has she been historically difficult to trust but she also doesn’t do much in her fights and hasn’t landed more than 47 significant strikes over her last five three-round fights. Overall, this is the fight that I have the least interest in watching and in terms of DraftKings and betting. I could see it being a close split-decision on either side but will lean Pennington as the younger fighter that might land a takedown or two which could swing rounds in a low-volume fight.

$7.5K Josh Emmett vs $8.7K Shane Burgos

Hurricane Shane Burgos comes in as a (-135) favorite and the comeback on Josh Emmett is (+115). Burgos is coming in on a three-fight win streak and most recently a third-round finish over Makwan Amirkhani last November. His opponent, Josh Emmett, had two big knockouts last year against Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic. The thing about Emmett is that he has a ton of power but doesn’t throw in volume. If he is unable to knock out Burgos clean then I don’t see him winning this fight. The problem with Burgos is that he is very hittable and loves to engage in a brawl with the idea that he will just outland his opponent. He has only been knocked out once and that was by Calvin Kattar in what was the only loss of his career. Burgos scores 3.67 fantasy points per minute which is third highest in the Featherweight division and will continuously push forward against Emmett. He also has a sizable five-inch reach advantage which should be a factor in what should primarily be a boxing match. The pick is Burgos by decision is the official pick but I’ll have shares of both sides as the winner should score well and Emmett is always live for a knockout.

$9.4K Curtis Blaydes vs $6.8K Alexander Volkov

Curtis Blaydes comes in as the biggest favorite on the card at (-390) and the comeback on Alaexander Volkov is (+320). Volkov is coming off a unanimous decision against Greg Hardy which left more to be desired in my opinion. Curtis Blaydes is coming off an exciting KO victory over JDS at the UFC Raleigh card. I’m all over Curtis Blaydes in this matchup. He is the strongest wrestler in this divison and one of the best in the UFC, averaging over six and a half takedowns per 15 minutes. I don’t think it will take Blaydes much time at all to get this fight to the ground and essentially dominate Volkov when he gets it there. He is the safest play on the slate and scores 4.08 fantasy points per minute which is the highest in the heavyweight division. His inside distance line is already up to (-240) and climbing. Blaydes by TKO via ground and pound is the official pick. If you are going to bet that, I highly suggest doing it over on FanDuel where they have an odds boost available to bet him by KO at +120 (Use my referral link if you need to sign up 😉

Favorite Bets:

Max Rohskopf ML (-164)
Max Rohskopf by submission (+210)
Gillian Robertson ML (-120)
Brianna Van Buren by submission (+1000)
Curtis Blaydes by KO/TKO (+120 – odds boost)